NoDoji's Day Trading Log

TRY this: Look at the chart and visualize where the next price move will get major attention from the industry. Picture price on the chart going to that spot. Also look at the chart and see where price is now and visualize where the opposit inflection spot is.

The beauty of such an exercise is you will know what to expect and the flip side is you will automatically know how the trade is performing.

Forget reasons, forget a bias all that stuff is useless in a game of chance. Yes, i fully agree a trader must be aware of reports coming out because they move mkts. I never try to pre-judge a reports move because it is futile exercise. If i jump on price after a report i generally wait for the initial reaction to peter out and make a decision after price has retraced and starts a new move, either a continuation or a reversal. I kind of watch big bars and see if they get covered in the opposit direction. Reports are always a challenge, the best trades are when the results are way off of expectations from the industry. :eek:

 

A doji is a candlestick pattern in which the open and close are exactly the same, signifying indecision in a standoff between the bulls and the bears.

My handle is NoDoji because my goal as a trader is act decisively, putting on strong trades without hesitation as soon as they set up, rather than spending time weighing the bull/bear arguments for a mediocre trade.

 

awesome dude!

so, how's that working out for ya?

 

Hog, this comment accurately reflects something I did this morning. After the sim trade with crude, having a bit of time, I contemplated a trade on ES this morning.

The price action was too indecisive for me to play the ORB. But as it ran up off a slightly higher low and then stalled for a moment close to the previous resistance point, my first thought was to short. Instead, I asked myself, “Where would the early shorts place their stops?” (me being one of them if I acted impatiently and shorted at that point).

The answer was: Somewhere between previous resistance and the pre-market high of 1054.75. Without any particular news driving a strong trend day, I felt confident price would range from the upper to lower channel lines.

So instead of shorting prematurely, I looked at the chart, "saw" where price would likely go before reversing in the channel, and I offered 1054.00 figuring a push through previous resistance should carry it a couple handles at least close to that high. Price ended up reversing just above 1053.00, so I missed by a few ticks. But my strategy was sound, because the pullback to the lower channel line was a solid 5 handles.

 

It's a surprisingly difficult road to travel, but I'm willing to build and test many vehicles to find the one that travels this road with ease.

 

I do did trade crude.

I shorted it after the news out, read the number. my initial judgement before the number is bearish (the run up) I shorted it at second time low of 70.87 (bounced from 70.5 to 71.2+, then legged down to 71 under, my stop is at 70.97) covered it at 69.3. a good risk/reward trade.

in the pre-market, I bought RPRX at 1.5 and sold it at 2.67. then bought TLR at 1.1 late afternoon, break out nicely for me, sold it at 1.33.

pre-news trading is gambling, particularly just around the news, you never know what the number is. but you can wait a little bit, after you see the setup, then jump in, that will be better and safer.

actually there are several good short spots, at 70.5, 70.2, 69.5.

 

did two nice trades this morning.

natural gas after the report, bought it at 4.8, sold it at 5.040

bought crude at 69.8, sold it at 70.87.

look at the number, judge the anticipated breakout direction, then put a stop buy/sell there, also put a tight stop loss (most time, in breakout, if right, almost zero stop loss)

 

I am break even for the day, had 1 loser and 2 winners. Main problem for me is I have around a 2 point stop loss, and I need to go for at least 2 point wins. Both winning trades would have made 2 points. All were longs, so really I should be up $ 100 for the day. I need to stop killing my trades when I get a little profit.

 

I think trying to understand what type of day is very important. Is it a range or trend day. Also, did it change later in the day from trend to range. Once you are pretty sure what type of day you have and what direction market is going in, then take your signals. If you get stopped out, wait patiently for the next trade.

I got stopped out on 1st trade, mistake being I chased instead of waiting for it to come to my limit.

Got back in when it did reach my limit, and it was a winning trade, but got out too soon.

No revenge trading, and did take stop on 1st trade, but I could have made it into a winning trade if I averaged down. However, it would have been a winning trade, and I would not have needed to average down if I just waited for it to hit my limit. So I still feel averaging down is not the right play, just better to wait for either signal or limit to take trade, don't chase, and have patience to let it play out. I would be doing much better this month if I followed these rules including not fighting the trend if and when you are able to determine it.

 

b/e on the day

Pre-market Nov crude was moving slowly and selling off each time it hit 70.47, so when it left a slightly lower high, I offered 70.43 with a stop @ 70.53, figuring if it suddenly ripped through resistance with slippage I’d be within my max loss per trade. It hit 70.41 and then fell off a cliff making an $1100+ move my way. This was sooo frustrating I contemplated smashing the POS keyboard on my spare PC, but thought that would be unprofessional.

Short CL (the stock) @ 78.28, pullback from lower high. Instead of trailing the stop real close, I left it at b/e and was stopped out on the pivot off 78.13 for b/e. When I take profits, the move goes further in my favor, when I leave my stop at b/e I get stopped out. OK, I’m sure that’s only my selective memory at work, but it often seems that way.

Short ANF @ 34.49, pullback from a lower high, stopped out b/e when it also failed to break down further.

Missed the middle of the day’s trading, then returned to look for an ES rally to short after it had reversed direction. I used my “where would the early shorts place their stop?” strategy, offering 1065.00 and missed by a couple ticks.

I was considering an ES short @ 1062.50 pullback from a lower high after hitting a lower low, but two things gave me pause: 1) the strong hammer at the bottom of a 3rd leg down intraday and 2) cross-referencing the 1 week 1 hour chart I saw that it was very close to the 20-period EMA on that chart in an established uptrend, so I waited and sure enough that price zone became support and it bounced, saving me from being an early short who got stopped out. I did not become a long because it was late in the day and it was much a range day with only microtrends and the bulls seemed tired.

As price moved to retest the high of the 3rd leg up in the microtrend, I offered 1065.75 expecting one last channel line overshoot then a reversal within the range. Missed this one by 3 ticks, as it reversed off a slightly lower high.

So after missing crude's $1100 move, and two ES 4-handle moves, I was feeling very frustrated. I asked Mr R.W. how he gets over the frustration of having limit orders missed by ticks then watch the trade move so nicely in one’s favor and he recommended I start drinking before the opening bell, because by the closing bell I’ll have forgotten all about it. This demonstrates the importance of a good trading room with seasoned professionals to help you through the learning process

I believe I should start placing my orders just a couple ticks inside where I’ve been calculating reversals or pullback continuations and see if I don’t have better luck!