+ $74 Sim traded ES: As it made a high on the day prior to consumer sentiment report, I placed a sell stop @ 1064.50 (about a pt below the high), triggered on news. Covered at the pivot off the lower channel line overshoot for a very quick $603 profit. This demonstrated the value of having my order in place ahead of time. The question you may be asking is why did I place a sell stop and not also a buy stop. Because in my demo account I canât bracket orders for some reason. I used to think I could, but I found out when I place a second order in the DOM, the first order vanishes. So I picked a side. I picked low consumer sentiment because everyone I know thinks the economy stinks and theyâre either losing jobs or worried about losing jobs. I also figured parents had to buy back-to-school clothes and supplies and would feel especially spent, so to speak. The nice pre-news run up gave me a good zone to put in the sell stop order and it worked out well. If trading live, I wouldâve bracketed by also having a buy stop above the HOD. So when one was lifted, the other order would serve as the initial stop on the trade. Live trades: Shorted ANF @ 33.12 on a pullback from a lower high beneath the now-falling moving average, looking for a breakdown of the LOD. It showed surprising support around 32.80, considering the dismal consumer confidence number, but no real buying to push it back up and it eventually made a slightly lower low where I covered @ 32.75 on the pivot for +$72. If Iâd had a larger position I wouldâve covered half and left the other half to play out for a further gain. Short ANF @ 32.71 on a pullback through the EMA after a failed rally, expecting a strong break to a new low. Made a new low by .02 cents and pivoted, stopping me out for +$2. I had a tight stop because with the high short interest this one can bounce hard off support levels and I was looking for a strong breakdown. OK, traders, read those words again, words that I actually typed in my journal as I was trading: "with the high short interest this one can bounce hard off support levels" The strong support it found at that level on three occasions today was a LONG SIGNAL. My short bias kept me out of an excellent long trade. Ignore the news, ignore the fundamentals, trade the price action. I need to start talking to myself out loud again while I trade, so I can hear myself tell myself useful information! The market churned for a while after that and then I had several things to do so that was it for the day.
+ $0 - Day - $420 - Month + $17953 - Year (30%) Out most of the day. End of day placed offer on ANF @ 33.20 assuming it would retest previous resistance on the little rally and it never made it before falling off. Seems price only tests previous resistance when I put on a position too early, ha I look forward to a productive October. I've had much success with ES in sim. I tested many strategies over the past weeks and learned a lot. My biggest concern is whether or not I can exercise patience in only taking the best setups. I put on a lot of mediocre trades in sim and it's a total waste. Catching a day's move early on the breakout can't be beat, and I've found that when the opening range is fairly narrow, the breakouts are the best.
I'm using the 5-min chart and look for a break outside the range of that opening bar. What I've found though is that if the opening bar is quite large, a break outside of it often has bounceback and will stop you out, so I believe it's better to wait for further confirmation of the action in that case, like a lower high/higher low, or a move back to the 2-period EMA that fails to break through. I also reference longer term charts for the bigger S/R picture.
"Traders will always be dealing with a certain amount of losers every day in daytrading, there is no getting away from that" Lets say a person is looking for a breakout of their pre-set range in the morning. We all are focused early because we all want to catch the days initial "RUN". We want a part of the days range. Why else do we trade? Ok, lets review how we are thinking at 0930 est when the stock mkt opens. (Forget overnight, etc, we trade as if this is a regular job and are not trading freaks.) Ok, we got up, put a cup of coffee in the microwave and prepared a fresh pot. We refreshed our body, we turn on the tube and casually watch the cartoon time CNBC SQUAWK BOX idiots for the overnight news and a fast check of what the ES did overnight. The news etc is mox-nix because we are going to trade what we see on the screen...........thats the only interpretation of the news that matters. Right or wrong, we care less. When i watch CNBC and a pundent comes on to talk up their own book, i mute it or turn the channel. The only opinion that works for me is mine and mine only, well mine and the screen. When looking for the initial "RUN" i am assuming everyone else is trying to do the same thing...........thats valuable information in and of itself. The next source of information is the price action itself. Doing the ORB can be a challenge sometimes even after you have done it over and over because every day is different. We learn how to make adjustments as soon as the first attempt fails. That first failure tells you something about the ORB. it is not a naked failure, no failure is naked, they always give you feedback if you are listening. Lets say you went Long at your number (top of your range) of your numbers and price went above it by 3 ticks and fell back below your number but did not go all the way THROUGH your range and out the other side. Ok, then price breaks out the top again. What to do? You have 3 choices, you can be a wussie and be afraid to go Long again because the last trade was a loser, you could just take the trade again knowing price decided to "TRY AGAIN", you could take the trade with a filter this time, the filter would, could be to wait for a tick ABOVE the previous breakout and go with that. Your STOP is simple.......if price sinks back to the line, chuck it or give it a little more room and hold it and if it then falls back to the previous failures low and maybe a tick lower.............CHUCK IT, bail out. You are in control. You are receiving information to make the next trade. Each trade is not a seperate animal in a jungle, each trade is part of a hurd. The hurd is undecided sometimes, but sooner rather than later, it will find a path. This morning something out of nowhere dropped the mkt like a rock. ( leaked report, who cares, it moved thats all that matters). I was caught off guard again and chased it and caught it. Took some profits and was looking for a retrace to get back short. Was looking for a 50% retrace at 1049.00 to get short again and took a small loss but made some more gravy when i took a long at the "HOOK" up at 1050.00. Notice i only got Long AFTER i was convinced the retrace was a failure and the "HOOK" was a Gold signal to confirm a reversal. The 1059.25 bar (intradays high as it turned out) showed a KEY reversal that went into a sideways mkt until a drop down to 1047 that i did not catch. Did play with the late stuff for 3 seperate handles just to work on some late day trades. The late action still bugs me. LET each trade give you information, the mornings matter the most. Take serious signals and forget trading noise, you will be rewarded. Always remember trading is 90% boring and looking for a FEW simple signals that make the 10% of terror and excitement which produces 90% of the profit. PS: Nod, that wussie comment was not meant for you. We all know many guys are scared stiff to trade ES. Truth be known they probably would even lose if trading corn. ha
Offered 33.05 ANF on open and chased it down to 32.90, but missed the opening high by .10 cents, then didnât want to chase it further, although in retrospect (where all trades are perfect), chasing wouldâve been fine. ES sim trading: Played around a bit scalping in pre-market, a fairly useless exercise (as Hog warned me), netting $158. Had a scratch trade on open for +$38.50 Put on the ORB short @ 1044.50 and trailed a stop very close because it was a deep lower channel line overshoot and my position was 5 cars, out for +$351. I did nothing leading up to the 10:00 a.m. news and it whipped around so much on the news and made such a large move that I laid low, missing a very profitable move. The market based, failed again and I thought it best to wait for a confirmed long entry, or a decent rally to short. Technically, I thought it would test the 1027.00 zone as previous support. I considered placing a limit buy order @ 1029.00 a couple pts above that zone and then use a 3-pt stop, but then never ended up doing it because I started studying candle formations. If Iâd played that one, OracleWizard wouldâve turned me in to the SEC for having inside info, because 1028.75 was the bottom of that move. I started studying hammers and shooting stars very closely and have determined that entry at the open of the bar immediately following either of these candles provides a very low risk stop loss zone and almost always gives at least a scalp profit and if at the bottom or top of a multi-leg move, provides a great reversal entry. I tested the theory the worst time of day by going long @ 1034.00 at 12:50 p.m. after a small hammer was left behind. I never would put this trade on live because it was the doldrums and no other reason for the trade other than the hammer theory, but even so the hammer was too small and in a narrow range. BUTâ¦I like testing strategies under worst case scenarios! There was enough price move off that signal to move my stop to b/e (I didnât trust the trade), and I was stopped out b/e. As a scalper working a narrow range, though, I couldâve taken a couple ticks profit. Again, not something Iâd do live, so Hog donât whine at me for that one; it was just a test! Rest of the day worked on parameters for the dojis at the tops and bottoms, looking to automate this one. I still have issues with patience, trade management, focus, failure to grab good setups and stick with them, etc. but overall Iâm doing OK in sim. I just need to trust myself and go for it at some point here (probably when Iâm about to run out of money; that will be an incentive). :eek:
Good trading, I got within max loss of $ 200 and took a loss of $ 175.00. Main problem is that when market bounced off of around 1029, I thought it was low of day, and took a long which I averaged into which was against how I am supposed to trade one of the indicators that I use to help me get into a trade. If I followed my system this would have been a positive day. Using max loss to prevent taking massive losses due to revenge trading. I wanted to go long again at 1025, which would have worked out, but it was near close of day, and did not want to worry about margin call issues. I also seemed to have a belief we would have a buy on dip by longs to bring the market back up to close to positive for day, which of course did not happen.