Oh yeah! Hey, I'd've been happy with this trade done live on 1 car! You know, I've watched this housing news "creep action" a couple times now. Is this a pretty reliable indicator as to the market's reaction to the news, or is it just 3 coincidences where just before the news the market happens to move in the correct post-news direction? I guess the important question is if I were to put on the trade pre-news and the market reacted against my position very violently, what kind of slippage should I expect beyond my stop price?
I am seeing more "PRE REPORTS" runs myself. This is just another wakeup call for us retail traders to be aware for this kind of BS. Went short this morning on the -6 at 1060x. Took +2 handles on the very next bar whose low was 1057.50 and closed a tick above its low at 57.75. So i was flat as the next bar (0945est) made another low and then proceeded to make a key reversal. With that KEY reversal bar that also closed a tick away from its high i was thinking to get long and use the KEY bars low as a last ditch STOP LOSS point. ( I use KEY bars like that at times, kind of a spot to for sure null and void the KEY bar if the following bars reverse back if took the keys direction). Anyway there i was flat and watching to get long and went to the microwave to warm up a cup of coffee and looked back and price was tanking......... = WTF!!!!! That was the 0955 bar, BEFORE the report and it closed on its low and at the low of the previous KEY bar. I bit my tounge and chased at 1055x. I was lucky on that chase, which was very unusual. I made 6 handles on that particular trade and was feeling lucky mixed with a little frustration and yet aggressive enough to fight it off and the short worked. I will only do that early in the day because if completly wrong i have enough of the day left to recover. In the afternoons the setups are not as reliable unless a solid signal. The early bird gets the worm is my motto about trading early. I do trade in afternoons, but am more careful. The days of making it in the mornings and giving it back in afternoon are long gone...........that used to be very frustrating. PS: Watching TOP GUN again, must be 10th time . ha. Most TV is useless. PSS: Friend i mentioned a couple weeks ago that had the kindey transplant and her body was rejecting it passed away. She will be missed by many of us. Health can be fleeting.
A lot of people compare trading to gambling and this is an area where it's very similar. You have nice gains and get both greedy and loose, giving up the gains with lower probability setups, or chop-chop zones. My husband and I were in Vegas years ago and he'd made money and given it all back playing blackjack a couple days in a row. On the third day he, as usual, followed his rules very diligently and quickly turned his $40 into $80. I told him to give me the original $40 and play as if he'd not yet won anything. He then went on to play a series of extremely disciplined hands, giving me the money every time he doubled it and left the table $360 richer I now say out loud after the first 90 minutes of trading has passed: "This is that time of day when I give up my gains." It helps remind me to wait for a real boat to come by, instead of climbing on a log and hoping to stay above water.
No live trades today. +$314 for the week, better than a stick in the eye. Decided to dedicate the day to ES sim because I feel like I'm getting the hang of it and it's nice to trade one thing! I forgot to check news times and missed getting in on ES off durable goods. I saw it suddenly drop, checked news, saw the poor durable goods showing and figured the weight was still to the downside. Short @ 1042.75, took off half @ 1041.50 (yesterdayâs support zone) and moved the stop near b/e on the other half and stopped out. Wish Iâd taken the additional $137 when price neared the next support level. Short 2 ES @ 1043.75 pullback to the 20 EMA in a downtrend, cover half @ 1042.00 on a pivot from below the lower channel line, stop near b/e on other half. Covered @ 1042.75 when price left a higher low hammer. Plus New homes and Mich sentiment numbers coming out soon, so wanted to be flat if price didnât break down further. There was too much chop after the news so I sat on my hands. Short ES @ 1047.50 pullback from double top. Took off half @ the 20-EMA, 2nd half stopped out near b/e on the pivot off the 20 EMA. Short @ 1045.75 after a shooting star left a lower high. Took off half at the lower channel line 1044.00. A selloff at the 20 EMA would confirm the down trend, but it took me out there to the tick I believe, basically confirming the market was a tight rangy mess. Decided to take the dog to the park because the market was doing nothing and the dog said to me, "Why are you staring at that mess instead of taking me to the park?" Returned to see a small but nice breakdown had occurred, of course. End of day short ES @ 1044.25 pullback from next resistance level. Took off half at the 20 EMA and left the other half near b/e to ride. It kept attempting to resume the uptrend off the 20-EMA and coming within a tick of my stop. Finally, it made me proud by breaking down. Covered @ 1041.00 because I had several pressing errands and wanted to post before I left. Sim ES trades attached. +$577 more sim dollars to spend in my sim world! All my trades were scalps; I missed a decent move while at the park. I guess scalping isnât so bad with a good win rate. Have a good weekend all!
Good trading. I have a problem in that if I make a good trade, I don't feel like trading the rest of the day, and if I make a bad trade, I look for opportunities to trade later in the day. I made profit today, but skipped a good trade later in the day. I also have so far been keeping under my max loss. I wonder if I should try to take 2 trades per day assuming they meet my setups or stick to one for awhile to make sure that I stay profitable then slowly go for another. Or I could try one more trade if the 1st did not work out for example by chasing or a mistake on my part, however, if it did not work out do to randomness, then I don't think the rest of the day may be good. Had a good setup this morning on es real money, took trade, but got out before it reached my target goal on fear of reversal, but of course it did travel all the way to target although it took awhile. I need to not chase, not get in too early before confirmations, and let targets get met by not moving targets or stops. Also, need to not average in more than once and stop trading if I reach max loss for day. Those are my rules so far.
Well i completly understand about not following rules later in the day and took a look at that a few years ago. What i discovered was a combination of being reckless with profits. That forced me to condition myself to view each and every trade with or without profits as if it was the first trade of the day. When i wake up in the morning, i get ready to go to my job. That job is to make money daytrading. What i was doing before the conditioning was not being as committed in the afternoons and (the and is important here) not waiting for solid trade setups., Not waiting for the same setups in the afternoon as i do in the morning was the problem because the SETUPS do not form with the same odds in the afternoon as in the mornings. In the afternoons, some not all, i am not saying i do not trade in the afternoons, you get more false moves. You get more out of nowhere moves that are large enough to hit a STOP LOSS and then reverse. Trading crap like that can frustrate the best of us. I do not shoot from the hip, i want to trade with the odds i know, not with the ones created by afternoon wild loose cannon traders that gum up the works. I firmly believe the better professional traders are all in the game before noon and later the game has a lot more loose cannons flopping price around like a fish out of water. So i am more careful late in the day...........the main deal i look for in afternoons is more about a solid reversal than anything else.
Very frustrating day with no live trades after 2 missed entries. I saw that ES established a very narrow opening range and figured it would be a good ORB play. I ended up missing the entry by not having my order in place in advance, and when it quickly broke out I was afraid to chase an entry. I believe this one was worth chasing because the opening range was so small. Iâve noticed in the past that the breaks out of narrow opening ranges usually have much stronger continuation than breaks out of large ones, which can shake you out a lot. However, the important thing is to have an order in place in advance to prevent the need to chase. Later, offered 76.99 for CL after a pullback from the HOD figuring it would at least touch the 10-period EMA on the retest. It missed by .03 cents, then had a great move to make new lows. ********* The market seemed very choppy in a range at that point, so I had some fun in the demo account testing Al Brooksâ concept of how scalping a pt a day on 100 ES contracts makes you a millionaire. Short 100 ES @ 1051.75, pullback from a strong run up, cover @ 1051.25 for +$2020. Short ES @ 1053.50 on a pullback from a new HOD, but since I was chasing an entry was quite late, I only shorted 2 with a 2 pt stop, hit for -$210. Later, when ES was creeping up a wall of worry and was around 1058.00, I offered 1060.25 and eventually got 53 cars lifted at the HOD. Covered a minute later @ 1059.25 for +$2395. Short 100 ES @ 1058.75, doji weakness near the HOD. With this scalping I really need to have an offer in a let price come to me, but I hit the bid to test a worst case scenario. This was pretty much barb wire as Al Brooks describes it and normally indicates continuation, so this was quite a risky trade the way I did it. Set a target @ 1058.00 at the 20 EMA, lifted for +$3270. Had a bit of drawdown on this one as price attempted to test the HOD and failed. That drawdown is the difference between letting price come to you via a limit, and chasing a risky entry. When scalping you simply canât accept anything other than the best entries. If this had hit my stop above the HOD, it wouldâve wiped out my profits and left me with a solid loss on that size. Now we were in that time of day when one can easily give back part of a day's profits, so I played with small size in the range. Short 2 ES @ 1058.25 after 3 shooting stars on the 1 hour chart, moved stop near b/e when price hit the lower channel line, figuring it should break down or Iâd re-evaluate the trade, hit for +$15. Lower channel line was the pivot point. Short ES @ 1057.50 after a lower high, larger than usual stop above the HOD because I didnât want to be shaken out. I didnât see enough strength this late in the day to stake a new high. I moved the stop near b/e and was taken out for +$15 when buyers came in quickly just a couple ticks below previous support. Short ES @ 1058.75, pullback from the upper channel line, stop above HOD. Moved stop near b/e when price moved down and again stopped out for +$15, then broke down a couple points after that without me. The lesson for me here is donât trade these choppy little ranges unless willing to leave the initial stop in place for a while, and frankly why risk it? Had I gotten into the ORB trade today I would've had fine profits to show for it and no reason to risk any of it in the midday chop. Also I did a sim trade on AAPL options for +$890. Iâve been considering day trading AAPL options for some time now and working it in sim to see what size I can comfortably trade taking into account the spread and slippage on stops. Iâll need to test some trades with stops, because todayâs stop wasnât hit; I exited on a limit profit target when the stock became oversold.
What told you that around 1060.25 may be the high of day? Just curious. I broke even today since I was trading in that chop range as you mentioned. I actually don't mind ranges, but like you said, you really need to pick your price and not chase. I chased the 1st entry and took out my trade for a stop on a reversal signal. I then shorted again this time for a small profit but again did not get in the best price. Some signals today I frankly missed by looking at other stuff instead of the chart. I am not someone that can watch the chart constantly when the market is moving slow, so I will read posts on et and do other stuff.
That was uncanny, eh? I looked at the small pushes up that had been occurring and I placed my offer well in advance at a price I thought it would at least push to next if indeed it attempted to maintain the gradual uptrend. I had to laugh when it did push one more time and that turned out to be the high. I guess when everyone looks at the same thing, we start to trade "groupthink".
I was looking at around 61 and also 62.50 as the high, my price go short was 62.50, when i saw 61 was the high got in too late into the short trade since with the massive uptrend I was waiting for a particular confirmation which did occur but it was lagging the price, and it seems price likes to fall faster than it rises.