Elit, nice charts. This is pretty much how I trade. A couple of the entries you pointed out were a bit later than what I might trade, but I think these charts and your entries pinpoint one of my problems which is feeling like I've missed the trade when I don't get in at my intended entry point. Your entry points are more confirmed and I can see that when joining a trend or confirmation of a reversal, you don't have to have the exact entry point; there's some room to work it. Actually, my first intuitive feed yesterday pre-news was to go long ES at 1113.50 because of the way it was pushing tick-by-tick, like greyhounds at the gate. I sensed electricity in the price action, that same breakout feeling you get when a stock's in extreme NRB consolidation on very low volume and suddenly a refresher starts running hard on the level 2. It was at that price level that I had the thought "hmmm, someone knows something here." I'm sure experienced traders just jump on their intuitive ideas without hesitation. On the other hand I can see the benefit of waiting for the numbers to come out, because intuition is just that and I'm sure a lot of money's been lost by betting big at the pre-news casino.
I think these are good observations to make, but I agree with bighog that it's probably best to wait for the initial reaction and take it from there. To me this summer's news reactions and really trading in general, at least for the first hour, has been much more directional than normal - making the breakout trading work unusually well for ES. Maybe other traders see it differently, but this has been my observation.
yes nodoji: been trying to bridge the 123 bar reversal and/or al brooks' L1 L2 H1 H2 for entries with price action sequence but need more practice for that. so far dont feel comfortable about being out of the price action sequence. i think the market(price action) is smarter than me (so far) so i just let market hold my hand and lead me thru the HHs and LLs think price action is the middle ground between being too logical/technical and artsy(chart reading is an art they say ) good trading.
David, I came across your journal today and realized you shorted ANIK on Friday; I thought you shorted it on Thursday after it dropped and found support. Friday's gap down open and failure to move through 7.00 was indeed a fine short signal. My apologies!
+ $24 ES opening long triggered @ 1031.00 and I missed the first entry as it moved past, then I didnât take the second opportunity because I didnât feel there was much upside left. Turned out there was 4 pts for the taking. I shorted ANR @ 32.65, pullback from a lower high leaving an F/U candle, stop @ 32.79 above previous resistance, expecting a test and likely breakdown of the LOD. The market was still tentatively toying with bullishness, so I moved my stop to b/e, taken out. My failure here was not re-entering the trade on the next lower high, which almost made it to the previous resistance. Or even leaving my original stop in place wouldâve worked, but riskier. Price indeed then tested and broke down the LOD, but I was watching ES again after being stopped out. On a pullback from a lower high and just under the 20 EMA I thought an ES short @ 1032.75 looked inviting, but the bullishness of the market lately kept me at bay, regretfully. It was all downhill from there. Saw X refreshing hard around 46.00 for a while. I really liked it as a short there because of the lower high, but refreshing like that often breaks out to the upside, so I stood aside, only to see later it had fallen nicely all day for 1.00+ move, and never rose above 46.04. After that it was ranginess the rest of the day and I played a bit with WHR in 100-share lots, testing a breakdown strategy. It has a wide spread and is very jumpy, but it occasionally breaks down very strongly, as it did near the open this morning, so I gave it a few runs and got stopped out each time because of the whippiness.
Nod, the High School here starts up again on September 8th. Many teens will be glad to get back in school and pursue their future with vigor. They have a job to do even as students. Fighter pilots got in their planes and went on missions knowing full well they might meet the enemy in the air. The more aggressive pilots WANTED to get in a dogfight and score some more victories. It was a well known fact that the more aggressive a pilot was mano "V" mano the better the chances of him returning to base because his aggression against the other fighter would usually be the difference between kill or be killed. No aggression in the fight would mean he was just setting himself up as an easy target. Trading is a job, it is what we do. Tom Baldwin a big time bond pit trader in his day said it best: "My job was to accept risk, so that is what i did" You need to give yourself time and sit down and figure out what you want to trade. Is it going to be stocks or futures? You are not yet prepared to flip flop between one and then the other and then look back at the other. That can come later, right now you need to focus on what you NEED to do, not what you want to do. Trading is a lot of nothing most of the day, it is part and parcel of what we do. If you focus on a single item and it gets boring,,,,,,,,,,then you just sit tight and still focus on what possible could come next, you prepare, you anticipate. Your discipline is lacking where it is needed now more than ever. To defeat not pulling the trigger is by getting in the fight and get more aggressive. Think of it like this as an exercise: At least get in there and set a loss figure to start the day, if you hit that figure, quit for the day and review the trades you made. You are going to get more discouraged by winning a few bucks a day and not being aggressive at your good signals. You will not build confidence by just making a few dollars a day while not going for the gusto. Confidence comes from aggression. Build some courage and be bolder. Think like a pissed off fighter pilot out on a mission to drop some jap planes into the drink as it flames down to the big blue water. Aggression works, get juiced, get the blood flowing. Get mad, aaaaagggarrrr. PS: We won the war in the Pacific because we never forgot the sneak attack on Pearl Harbor. We got mad and we did not just get even, we kicked their ass with aggression. Ok, german cars are cool and well engineered but no LEXUS will ever be in my garage. :eek: