Well the good news, is that I get paid by people who I trade per month even on days that I don't win big.... I agree that I need to get rid of both negative and positive attitudes. I did previously buy 2000 more shares of SUF at $ 1.15/sh which I am holding for a longer term trade and got in a day before the stock started shooting up. Good luck on your trading.
+$122 The ES move off the news in pre-market caught me off guard with its speed and since I didnât have any stop orders bracketed in advance, I missed the trade. Iâm hesitant to place bracketed orders pre-news because when I watched the action yesterday on the news it was whipsaw city, leaving no time to react. Itâs probably safer for me at this point in my trading to avoid those plays. Any opinions from the seasoned e-mini traders out there? I didnât trade either opening range trigger (long @ 1009.00, short @ 1002.00), although either one produced 2 pts or better. I also failed to take a confirmed early long signal @ 1002.25 after a series of doji bars left higher lows and price broke up through the 20 EMA, because I didnât feel that my max 3 pt stop would survive a drop back to support. So with my ES focus done for the morning, I traded TIF near its major resistance zone. (I am going to admit, however, that when price moved back up to test the 1013.00 HOD, I changed my ES qty field to 5, placed my cursor to the sell side, and vacillated like crazy whether to short @ 1012.50 and place a stop @ 1013.50, risking my max loss, but looking for a possible 15 pt gain on a trip back to the 20 EMA. But I remembered how many times I thought price was âtoo highâ to break out again, and how easily it then did just that, and then I heard BigHog in my head saying, âNoD, there are much stronger setups to put risk your max loss on.â And so I stopped myself. Despite the move back to the 20 EMA providing 20 pts in this case, I still believe I did the right thing.) Chased a TIF short @ 30.17 after it left an F/U candle and started to fall toward the LOD, covered near b/e when it quickly found support above the LOD: -$4 I saw later that this bounce above the LOD left a hammer with a higher low, a superb long signal that I failed to see at the time (it's so easy to see what do to later on when the chart is all filled out!), missing a straight up .60 cent move, or a full dayâs trend depending on oneâs time frame. Short TIF 30.69 when it broke the HOD and stalled. Since I was top-picking, I placed a very tight stop hit for -$10. Short TIF @ 30.65, on a quick pullback from HOD on large selling volume, stop above HOD. Trade became minimally profitable, but when that selling volume failed to budge the price, I moved my stop to the top of my entry bar and was taken out @ 30.74 for - $20. Short TIF @ 31.13 after the final part of ride up occurred on almost non-existent volume and price pulled back from the new HOD on the first selling pressure in 13 bars. This was a high probability trade and I intended to short a full position, but forgot to change my qty field from 200 to 500. When price dropped and my P/L was less than expected I realized the mistake, but did not chase the remaining position, since this was still a top-picking trade despite the additional confirmation in my favor. This turned out to be a fine short trade and with the strength of the retail sector today, I covered @ 30.79, oversold and pennies above previous support, just .02 cents from the pivot low, for a $65 gain. Made a big mistake chasing a BNI short. I missed a decent short at an internal double top because I didnât look at the chart till it was over. Saw a lower high a little while later, stared at it, then chased the entry when it dropped, getting short @ 83.59 instead of at the 83.71 I'd been staring at. As soon as I was in, I slapped my forehead, realizing what a weak setup it was! I immediately saw the bigger picture: low volume selling and stochastics only 2/3 of the way to overbought, meaning a move to the upside was far more likely than a move down, because it had shown great strength on the day and buyers came in with volume on the last dip. I knew Iâd get whipsawed at best and contemplated exiting immediately close to b/e, which was the smart choice. Instead I let my stop above the lower high get hit for - $32. (Attached chart shows the good entry and my bad entry.) Later the market and TIF broke to the upside and as I watched TIFâs price action as it stalled around 31.43, I remained patient. Yes, there was a potential short setup, new high, price stalled, overbought, dried up volume, BUT I was not ready to short yet, because I imagined all the trapped shorts from the lower high earlier, all of them nervous as cat in Dog Alley, and the chance of short squeeze was quite strong here. Price was creeping a penny at a time and not a seller in sight. TIF became its only little world apart from the market, with a lot of intraday shorts filled with hope and not much else here. Price crept to 31.63 before pulling back below the MAs, but I no longer felt there was much useful R:R left either way with this one. Moved on to X, and you wonât believe it, but I chased the entry, shorting @ 45.18 instead of when it first came to my attention @ 45.27, pullback from a new high, covered near b/e on the pivot off trend line support for +$18. Came back from getting some lunch, saw TIF breaking down, chased the trade and ended up stopped at b/e -$5 for commish. Yes, friends, I lost my mind today. Saw HANS consolidating on low volume around 36.00, pointed it out to Mr. NoD (he just finished a program that signals consolidation on low volume), and mentioned that I'd like to short it at 36.00 in both accounts, but maybe should wait for more confirmation. And he said to bracket an order around the range, and I did neither, then it dropped suddenly over .20 cents and I'd learned my lesson about chasing and did not chase, and the freaking thing dropped from 36.00 to 34.99 before finding support! Short X @ 44.79 on a pullback from bumping its head against the now falling moving average, leaving behind another lower high. Setups donât get much better than this and I got in real quick, covering @ 44.56 on the pivot just above previous support for a $110 gain. Same time I shorted X here, ES also looked enticing for a short @ 1012.00 after a series of doji bars on low selling volume left a lower high below the 20 EMA. However, I wanted to focus on one trade at a time and X was in my sights after the run of scratch trades. OK, learned (again *sigh*) to enter quickly without hesitation, but never chase! Have a great weekend all! (P/L posted next)
Very good trading, you had lower $ amt for your losses and higher $ amt for your win plus more wins than losses. After a certain number of positive months, you may want to double the amount you risk per trade with a goal of earning over $ 100,000 per year on your trading.
Thank you, 77! I've been trading very 100-200 shares since my dismal April, but just started moving back into 500-share territory especially when a setup has a lot of confirmation behind it. I've found that 500 share positions keep me far more unforgiving with my risk management and I prefer it that way. More on that below.
I just got a nice article from Pristine's Trading Lesson of the Week: "Take Your Stops or Stop Trading!" "Most traders who don't stick to their stops know they are doing the wrong thing, but, they also won't allow themselves to exit the position, because they are unable to accept a loss. By accepting a loss, they are admitting they are wrong, and in turn, they will lose money. So, instead of facing or accepting this pain, they choose to forego their stop loss, and let the stock move against them, in HOPES that it will turn around and eventually make them a winner. They will literally do anything to avoid the prospect of becoming a 'loser'." Pristine then offers this excellent advice: "So, before you enter any trade, you must first accept that the money is potentially GONE. If you are going to risk $100 on a trade, then BEFORE you enter the position, you must emotionally tell yourself, the $100 is gone. I no longer have it. After all, you can't lose something you don't have! If the thought of losing $100 is too frightening, then you need to lower the amount of money you are willing to lose per trade, until it becomes emotionally acceptable. If you cannot find a dollar amount small enough, then try using a simulator account and work your way up to trading with small shares. If that doesn't work, then there is a chance that this business is not for you." The thing I'm most proud of over the past 3 months is that I no longer move stops except in my favor. I select a survivable stop price, then base my position size on that price level so I don't exceed my max loss per trade. As soon as the order's filled my stop is in place, because I've accepted that loss in advance. Also in the article: "For some traders this nasty habit can be easily broken by going back through personal statistics and looking at the positive difference in your P/L by taking your stops versus not taking them. " That is, in fact, exactly what I did after my April losses, and that analysis was responsible for a shift in my approach to managing risk.
From notebooks of trading tidbits collected over the years. First one from a 1969 book on trading Commodities: Rules can be forgotten! But once the trader has developed the ability to look at the major market symptoms and arrive at a valid judgement about it's technical health, he has (sorry, Nod, this was from 1969, ha) moved permanently into the elite group who put every confidence in skill and knowledge--- and let others depend on others and guesses and hunches. Identify 1 or 2 tactics that consistently work, then refine them to result in highest probability within your own mindset of comfort, etc. Some of the best traders are successful because they trade only 1 strategy. You work your strat while controlling risk. Belveal, 1969. Never SELL a dull mkt short. You're either ahead of the mkt or you're running behind it. For most trading being late with the order can turn a possible profit into a loss. It's better to anticipate a trend change, a pivot level etc and be wrong while taking a small loss than it is to "wait" for a confirmation and be sure to have a small chance of winning. " I've never been a successful chaser of price." Kaufman Anticipate---- Be ahead of the crowd. The most fundamental concept is how to recognize what a chart looks like just prior to an important breakout. When you think you can not win - you are done. Playing defense when you should be playing offense. You must be able to handle small losses. Losing is just part of the game. No, no, no, NO hesitation at your numbers. It is not an option. If winning trades should work immediately, then it must mean losers should be immediately dumped. Is this trade you are in now getting hotter or colder? Always trade with reference points. This works within your technical tragets for a profit or a loss. Always have a worst case STOP and the only choice for the stop is to pull the trade out quicker. STOPS are like taxi fare for a blind date. If he is a loser you can still get home safely. Nod, Your theme for ES, When you are ready. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Sso3h0xMJA