NoDoji's Day Trading Log

Hey NOD

A rhetorical question Ma’am

Trading PA also includes trading MoMo moves – I believe


Do you have a tool in you kit to track MoMo moves – specifically what it would look like if/ when they’ve possibly exhausted

May lead to a different “perception” about “chasing” – But please be careful with it till you get a tool, and get comfortable....


Good to be on a runaway train… very bad to be in front of one, or behind one changing directions - IMHO


Take Care

RN

 

I did better today and beat you by $ 30, made around $ 87 on es trading taking just 1 trade then went to sim for rest of day.

I still think you should just try alternating days, trade es for 1 day then trade stocks for another day. By the time you are focusing on stocks after trading es, you miss the other moves.

By the way, I woke up late, and still got a trade. Was able to stay in longer by going down to watch TV after getting in trade having stops and targets pre-set.

 

ND,

You already know this but every trade is a gamble, just like pulling the arm on the slot machine. You just try to align the probability in your favor by taking your well thought out and tested trigger. If you don't take your trigger you have nothing good psychologically.

My impression is that you worry about being wrong on a trade. The only way to be wrong is to not take your trigger. If you don't take your trigger and make money, that is a bad trade. IMO the only way to survive long term is to think this way.

Try this, each morning take your first 2 or 3 ES triggers using strict adherence to your rules. Even if they all hit your stop that is a minimal loss. Then go do the remainder of the day trading whatever stocks you like. In the evening review those 2 or 3 ES trades and evaluate what went right and what went wrong. If you see a trend you can tweak your setup.

This is just a suggestion to help you focus.

Good luck.

 

I do not think that is the right suggestion. trading is not gambling. you need technical skills and market fundamental knowledge.

Nd's problem is she could not think both fundamentally and technically, she just thinks technically.

for example, a drop. to some people may be a signal to sell; but to another one, may be a haven sent buy signal; to some sideline standers, it is a "maybe sell or maybe buy" signal, or confused. so the opportunity technically is 33% winning opportunity. but if you put on some fundamental filters, the probaility may increase to 80%, even 90%, 99.9%.

that is why I said purely technical trading is non-sense, it is really gambling.

 

Thank you, Jim. That is a good idea and was already in my plans - take my signals in the first 30 mins of trading and if nothing comes of it, move on.

I'm still not sure if it was a mistake not to chase my other 2 entries or not. Often lately ES trades in a range of about 2-4 pts and my concern was by getting in 2 pts from entry price left me with little to shoot for. Yet looking back, the late short entry had 7 pts of move left in it, and if I got into the 2nd long late, it still had over 3 pts left in it. But often there isn't that much happening.

Today was a day where more often than not, chasing a little would've paid off so nicely. But other times chasing produces death by a thousand stops. Tough call, easily solved by entering the trade quickly, and if I return to my desk and see it's moved without me, wait patiently I think is best.

 

Every trade is a gamble. Some trades are like betting red or black on the Roulette wheel; others are like covering half the board with your bets.

Technical analysis increases your odds and, in fact, is a footprint of how the majority of the crowd perceives the fundamentals. Day traders don't move price in a big way; large institutional investors do. These movers and shakers use a combination of fundamental analysis, news, and technical analysis to determine a fair price at which to buy a stock, and when to bail out, as well as a fair price at which to short stock, and when to cover.

You can see technical patterns set up price moves 80% of the time or more. If you wait for the best confirmed setup, you can pick winning trades often.

If you're day trading or short term swing trading, the technicals are a fantastic guide. I recently tested 3 swing trade portfolios, all of which returned decent profits in 1-5 days. My choices were purely technical. In fact, my 7/24 portfolio survived with a current $2100 gain despite 4 of the 6 companies reporting earnings since its inception. That demonstrates the power of technical analysis IMHO.

I've spent a lot of time in Robert's chat room and I think most of the traders there would confirm that even though I only trade a tiny % of the setups I call, my calls are pretty spot on, and they are strictly based on T/A.

 

Except for Red_Ink

 

Well, the good news is you are still darn good at reading a chart. You have recognized the value of the days initial run when all are looking for the same thing.

Chasing a move is a bad strategy as you recognize. So far so good. Now your mission is to capitalize on the situation. OK, you get a signal but you hesitate. now lets say you missed a signal and price runs away and you wish you were in, thats normal.

Think of each trade as just that, a single trade that will not make you or break you. (I know you read this also somewhere before but worth repeating) Trading is a PROCESS, it is a whole shitload of trades. Maybe today is 1 to 5 trades and maybe tomorrow is a single trade, then maybe 10 that 3rd day. But what you do know for sure is your risk management will not allow a single trade to hurt your capital for the entire process, so a single trade is just that.

You know you will get out quick enough if the trade is a dud, thats the easy part...........so why worry? Here is what you need to do. You need to be picky and have patience to wait for a good setup, yes sometimes like today you get an outside bar at the 0940 bar, where the high was 1005.75 (RTH) which turned out to be the high of the day in retrospect, and dropped down and closed at that bars low of 1002.00. = OUTSIDE KEY reversal, that confirmed the drop from the pre-open high of 107,ish.

The opening can be wicked, but in a way we must just deal with that and place our bets. How you as an individual use your tactics to do that is your choice..........BUT, in order to perfect a tactic it must be worked, messaged and tweaked to your liking. There is no other way to get comfy with your signals.

Here is a suggestion to try: Tell yourself you will every single day capture 3 handles from the big dogs each and every day. Tell yourself you will cheat and settle for 2 handles profit if it just feels good. Anything over 3 just consider yourself lucky because that is not your goal until later. When you get a new job in any profession they do not pay partner wages up front. Try to get your 3 handles before noon in attempt to put a little pressure on self.

That goal is rather small in dollar amount but big in the learning curve. You just trade a single car until you get consistent, until you feel the odds are in your favor for your SELECT FEW signals. You might even consider even a single type of setup-signal combo. Many big dogs are actually one-trick ponies. Kind of like a dog and pony show combined...

CONFIDENCE, work on that.

Chasing is bad because about the time we jump in after missing the start of a good move we manage to get filled just before the run starts to reverse enough to force us out. Damn that was aggravating before i understood how to read retraces as normal and relative to the previous legs size. So the answer of how to jump in the fray when we missed the start is to wait until the NORMAL retrace shows up and then we get in with the original direction on the possible continuation of the run for another leg. (read watch pivot points as a clue for where the next leg might be targeted)

Think: mkts run, mkts rest, mkts continue on, rest, maybe continue on for another leg or maybe reverse. A good one-way day will usually have 3 legs to ride.

PS: i just now read john (whatever his handle is, good advice. Nod.you are close PSS: Ok, jim something, ha

PSSS: remember, the faster, the further the "RUN" the less retrace...........great runs have smaller retraces. Well that is hard to say actually,

 

I agree with BH chasing a trade is not good. It is always a mistake. Does chasing a trade comply with your rules?

You need to look at it psychologically too. How bad do you feel when you chase and lose? Do you feel like Dobby in Harry Potter? Stupid, stupid, stupid me. This takes a toll. How do you feel when you follow your rules and lose m$ney? How do you feel when you don't follow your rules and make money?

Chasing a trade never pays off because it reinforces bad habits that will blow you out in the future. It is not a tough call. It is no call. There are always trades available by following your rules, no need to chase.

You know the old saying, you can pay me now or pay me later. If you don't establish and implement impecible habits now, you will eventually pay for it later.

Good trading.

 

Now that sounds like a tool to me... Yes, some would call it a skill - but... IMHO - Skills - are tools - to be used - when/ and as appropriate - as the situation warrants

RN