NoDoji's Day Trading Log

elit5314


Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 33


07-31-09 09:46 PM

Nodoji:

"""""""""because I'm pretty good at picking exits and entries."""""""""


TheROTrader


Registered: May 2009
Posts: 68


New Post 07-31-09 09:50 PM

>>>>he picks his exit before his entry, thats awesome!!!<<<<<<

that was nodoji's quote; u trying to be funny eh; lol

 

You guys are like Fox News, taking one line out of context

As you can see from the entire quote, I said I'm good at picking entries and exits scalping IN A RANGE. Anyone who's followed this journal has seen many of my charts demonstrating this uncanny ability of mine.

However, it's obvious I can't shake that mentality what it comes to letting profits run once the ranging is over and a real move ensues

 

>>>>>>You guys are like Fox News, taking one line out of context<<<<<<


its about time fox news noticed this thread

 

- $46

Four 100-share fills today left me with a realization that I’ve consolidated in a narrow range on low volume and am due for a break out any day now!

EBAY’s daily chart last week poised it for a breakout and it was on my long list. However, all the excitement occurred in pre-market and on open the sellers won the battle right off the bat.

I calculated ES opening range triggers and planned to honor them. Instead of simply putting in the stop orders, I watched, while also watching OSK, which was looking good for a short move. I looked back at ES and it had broken below my short trigger of 991.50 and was so far below the 20 EMA, I didn’t feel it had much more downside on such a bright and chipper day on Wall Street. Would’ve been good for at least a 2 pt scalp and if my order had been in place I would’ve had it in the pocket. Now you think that would’ve convinced me to at least put in my long trigger order @ 996.50, but no, I was busy with OSK.

I shorted OSK @ 29.52 based on 50% retracement of the opening bar and got only 100 of 500 shares lifted as it continued to fall rapidly. Took .32 cent profit on the bounce off the LOD for $30 gain (would’ve been $158 with proper fill).

Then I mistakenly chased a second short entry @ 29.30 off a lower high (instead of admitting I’d missed a good entry price and sitting on my hands), got a full fill (but of course), and was quickly stopped out @ 29.40 with slippage for -$64.

Short OSK @ 30.61 off lower high, another partial 100-share fill, covered @ 30.50 off 20 MA pivot for +$7.

Short OSK yet again @ 30.41 off another lower high and another 100-share fill! I checked my qty field and it was 500. I think waiting until the price drop was in progress before entering the trade instead of entering with an order at the 20 MA, was leaving me in the dust on my fills. I need to start using Al Brooks method of entering with stops in the direction of the momentum to prevent this from happening. Covered @ 30.31 pivot off oversold for +$8.

OSK moved up a bit and became totally range bound after that. It was at that point I saw that OSK had gapped up on good news, not because the market in general gapped up. Had I realized that I never would’ve chased that one entry, and if anything would’ve gone long at that higher low off the 20 MA. When I first saw OSK up in pre-market, there was no news posted.

Short STEC @ 35.49 after a lower high and lower low resulted in breakdown below the 20-period MA, and damn if I didn’t get a partial 100 shares lifted! Moved stop near b/e at the test of previous support, because although the uptrend was technically broken, STEC has been rather strong overall, and if this was a true breakdown, the bears should overpower any support bounce. Previous support broke down a bit, but the level before that held up and I was stopped out on the bounce for +$3.

Short ES @ 997.50 on a pullback from a lower high. Because there was a gradual uptrend in place to retest the high (and possibly the Magic 1000), I moved my stop to b/e when price dipped below the 20 EMA. The bears needed to prove themselves if this were a true reversal, and the volume was dismal here; I saw no need to throw money away needlessly. The longer price hangs in a tight range near the 20 EMA, the greater the chance of continuation. Stopped out for +$7.70 and price sat there for some time. The market seemed to be itching to test 1000 today, so I patiently waited for a breakout one way or the other. As BigHog has told me many times, a true reversal requires a change of sentiment and that was not demonstrated in this trade despite a lower high leaving a F/U candle near the top.

Based on the low volume and the tiny moves just above 20 EMA and back, it seemed that only scalpers were at work during this range, and in the meantime a large bull flag had formed. Price broke 1000 and then pulled back and I shorted on a stop @ 999.00. Moved up a bit twice and fell back off slightly lower highs, put also slightly higher lows, forming a very tiny inside pennant. I looked at the chart and I realized all at once that by being an "early short", I was now, in the words of Al Brooks, a "trapped trader", and the reason was because I was pissed about not taking my opening signals and jumped in instead of waiting for confirmation of a reversal. So, I could exit here or I could allow my max 3 pt stop to hold. I exited @ for -$92.30. When all was said and done, leaving my original stop in place would have allowed me to later exit with a small profit, but I believe I did the right thing at the time based on the action.

Saw that OSK had pulled back from a lower high on the day, but had already made 50% of the move I would’ve expected. Figured it was good for a scalp and shorted @ 30.56, covered @ 30.49 pivot off oversold for +$33, catching all but a few pennies of the remainder of the move. I actually got a complete fill on this one!

Since I didn’t believe there was a lot of ES upside over 1000 late in the day, I waited patiently for a confirmed short setup, which occurred upon a sharply failed test of the high, lower highs on selling pressure and a breakdown through the 20 EMA on a now-falling MA. Short ES @ 998.50, then went to put in a stop and accidentally left-clicked, out at limit for +$7.70. I was really pissed and quickly put the trade back on @ 998.00. Moved stop near b/e when price approached the lower channel line, stopped out for +$20.20. Should’ve simply taken my $62 profit at the lower channel line, but I wanted to give the breakdown a chance to work if it was real.

Jus to get some idea of what's left behind when picking and choosing, here are the trades I missed by not putting stop orders in place. Instead I watched the moves go without me, because without the orders in place you're left chasing, which places you at risk for a larger loss in a false breakout.

ES opening range short @ 991.50 (fell to 988.75)

ES long @ 990.50 - following hammer at bottom of a downtrend (rose above 999.00)

ES opening range long (second chance to get long on a setup) @ 996.50 and ride it above 999.00

ES short @ 998.00 lower high after 50% retracement of the climax bar (fell to 992.25)

ES long @ 992.75 pivot leaving a significantly higher low off the lower channel line (rose to 997.25)

I actually highlighted these entries on the ES DOM so I could watch what happened, instead of PUTTING ON THE TRADES!

CTRP -buy stop @ 54.45 for the breakout (rose to 55.88)

FDX - buy stop @ 69.00 for the breakout (rose to 69.30)

The good news is I really, really, really believe I will get over this problem.

 

eh, before you "really, really, really believe," you need to figure out what "this problem" is. You cannot get over something that you don't know.

 

Here's an idea that may help you focus;

Set aside the opening and morning session for ES only. Take your +6-6 setups and concentrate on that. If you feel in the groove with it stay with it the whole day. If it's just not clicking, switch over to equities.

At least take the first 2 or 3 ES setups and if not good karma switch over.

Just an idea for you to consider to help your focus.

GL

 

It's been made pretty clear in this journal as well as on my P/L thread posts, but in case you're new, the problem is I pick and choose trades from many valid setups, instead of trading every setup.

Suppose 10 trades set up in a given day and if all 10 trades were put on as soon as they set up, the results were as follows:

Two trades produce a 2% account gain

Four trades produce a 1% account gain

Two trades break even

Two trades produce a .5% account loss

Now, suppose I pick and choose 4 trades out of 10 setups and just happen to choose a 2% winner, 2 b/e and 2 losers. I end up with a 1% gain.

Suppose I choose two 2% winners, a b/e and 2 losers. I end up with a 3% gain.

Suppose I choose the one b/e and 2 losers. I end up up down 1%.

Suppose I trade every setup. My account is up 8% on the day.

It's a numbers game and if you have an edge (which I believe I do) and trade all valid setups based on your strategies, you should be net positive at the end of the year (which I am so far).

 

Despite taking only 9 of my 16 setups, had I gotten full fills I would've had an additional $200+ in my favor today. I plan to use stops for entries from now on, so I get full fills in the direction of the price movement, instead of trying to jump in after the move is taking off.

 

Jim, thank you for the suggestion. I think that's a good idea, because the opening moves are the strongest and when I miss them, I jump on less-than-ideal signals trying to "get back" what I missed.