A day of nothing. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, nothing learned, except if I donât start jumping at my signals, I may as well give up. Watched the opening range ES establish 949.25 as a short trigger and 954.50 as a long trigger. The long signal triggered, and instead of having my buy and sell stops in place in advance, I thought price was too close to resistance to rally much and did nothing. In fact I couldâve gone long off the open because a very steady support level was established in the 30 minutes before open and buyers piled in immediately on open. I never even tried to join the trend. I kept thinking there would be a good pullback to consider joining and the trend just kept going and going without me. Forgot to keep an eye on my favorite STEC and missed a great short day in that stock. Then I noticed POT hitting highs all day and despite this large gain it had consolidated instead of selling off quickly and as it approached the HOD I thought, âPlace a buy stop there and ride the momentum as everyoneâs stops get hit (shorts covering and longs doing what I was thinking of doing). Did I? No, and it ran through the high and went up another 2.00 a share from that price.
ND don't beat yourself up ... it's easy to see in hindsight on a day like today how much $ you could've made had you jumped at the precise opportune time. If it makes you feel any better, I had a long from pre that I exited during the opening bar, based on one of my setups and the probability thing. Total newbie shit .. whaddya gonna do? There's always another day. Better to miss a big one than to have played a big one wrong. You'll catch the next one.
I did not take any es trades today either. Saw a signal to scalp long around 972 but thought the market was already too high. I also missed getting long on a stock since I was waiting for a down day in the market to buy it long.
Too much time messing around with the elusive Champagne and Cheese of the ES and missing your meat and potato stock trades (making the cash register ring*). If meat and potato is steady and reliable that's what I want to consume every damn day. You are in limbo, pick a dog track.
This is acceptable . . . got to have some sort of assessment. Then you changed your mind upon further analysis. Acceptable, too. Now pick a characteristic and trade or don't trade in a repeatable fashion until you have enough evidence to satisfy your deduction. No such thing as "too high", right? Seemed similar to Nod's lost POT trade. Anything rationale in your assessment that makes you say this (assuming Nodoji will allow me to ask a question to another third party in the journal)?
All I could think of today was the suggestion made to me to use 10-20 pt stops The only stop to use today was the BUY stop, you know that one I was just about to place when I scratched my head and thought, "The price is reeeally close to major resistance, why just throw $150 away." Reminds me of a rejection letter sent to Dr. Seuss: "Too different from other juveniles on the market to warrant its selling."
Ask away, this is an educational journal (I hope). I'm still terribly prone to "too high". I kept thinking it all day with ES, yet I didn't think it was so high I should short it. That's kind of the mental signal, eh? If it's really so high why ain't I shorting? Because some part of me thinks it has room to run.
There's really no excuse for NOT following one of your setups just because price is high. That's mentally paralyzing, and who needs that? that shows some kind of emotional attachment to price. You want to be a professional? Then ask yourself each and every time, would a professional think like this? Price does not love or care for you . . . so why do you treat price like a little kitty stuck in a tree and say "I'm scared and you must come down for me to feel better". Silly. Tip: if you miss out on big runs because price never pulled back sufficiently, then study price behavior in a near-runaway market. Look close enough and you'll find setups that allow you to enter with confidence, without chasing, if you're quick enough (won't give you my approach, sorry). They are high probability, but you better be at the ready. Keep trading. JS
it does influence you. In the morning pre-market, I was showing my wife how I did trade on crude. I said there are two major reports today, one is labor, another is house data. then I saw crude was sliding toward my short spot, I said to my wife, look, that is the short spot, I went short, and crude magically slided further, and my wife looked at me with some awe, just ten minutes, 500 bucks was in. but this does influence me, I become very bearish all the day, try to find another short setup (subconciously I want to show my wife how smart i am, but i am stupid, I sould focus on my trading), in the thrust, I did not buy while fool around for short sale. the market rallied so hard, and I was bearish. damn, shorted crude around 66.8 several times, and got killed, made nothing, and lost the morning gain and more. that really sucks. the good thing is I shorted VCI at 11.3, covered it at 8.81, then saw STEC was dropping like rock, shorted it at 34.13, covered it at 33.21, recouped some loss. next time, others's opinions do influence traders's trading activities.
Here is some food for thought, NOD: 1: If you were short ES going in today, would you be afraid of market going higher and buy (cover)? Yes you would, and you would not think market is too high, so why when you have no position, you are afraid. See, trading is a mind game. In trading, never think of too high or low, only greed and fear, bear and bull, and think who is winning at the moment and who is affecting the ORDER FLOW, and 80% of the time, it is the LOSERS on the wrong side who are COVERING, and the big move occur when LOSERS are panic. 2: Make up your mind to be a breakout trader like HOG or a fader like BOB. HOG make big money getting on the train early today, and BOB would also make some money and has patience to wait to fade for the false break out higher in the early afternoon. It is hard for a newbie to be both.