Sheepsucker Thank You for the kind words BH Excellent points Sir Aside â I sure miss Mr. Reagan â never met the man â but I miss him RN
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+ $14 Could've been a frightening start to the day: Saw STEC moving down early in pre-market and thought about shorting it. Then I remembered the last time I offered STEC pre-market and it was snapped up quickly and made quite a run on the open, so I decided to wait. Best decision of my trading life as good news hit the wire just before the open and the short squeeze was on, from 27.00 pre-market to 32.00 shortly after the open. Nothing like record short interest combined with good news to light a fire! Placed a stop on CL swing short at the open because I expected it to drop quickly but it found support. Stopped out for +$14 and it did indeed hit highs all morning. Decided to dedicate the entire day to ES after I got my IB chart setup with 20-period EMA and Keltner channels. Paper traded all day, and the Keltners were fantastic until I got stuck in a rut with them and lost sight of the bigger picture that emerged: Long @ 927.50 break through 20-period EMA, sold @ 930.00, pullback from strong spike through upper channel. +2.5 Reverse to short @ 929.75, covered @ 924.25, pivot off dip below lower channel. + 5.50 Reverse to long @ 924.25, sold @ 926.50 on failure to break through the 20 EMA. (This one did end up breaking through, stop left @ b/e wouldâve kept me in for 2-3 more pts., but the lower low convinced me to exit) +2.25 Short @ 928.75, several failures to test the HOD, covered @ 926.00, pivot off dip below lower channel. + 3.0 Reverse to long @ 925.50, stopped out @ b/e which is where I moved my stop when the long position appeared weak. Long signal @ 926.25 (pivot from below lower channel forming slightly higher low). I decided not to take it because of the tight range and lower highs on the day. Turned out to be the trade of the day when the higher lows won the battle. Short signal @ 929.00, very slight pullback from rise through upper channel, but I noticed that the higher lows and steady resistance formed a bull flag and the volume was buyers now, signaling a potential breakout, so sat on my hands (why oh why?). Short @ 931.00, pullback from weak breakout above upper channel, 1 pt stop, hit as move up resumed. â 1.0 OK let's review: Technically speaking, had I taken the 926.25 long (and I have Tobbe as my witness I said to him "long signal @ 926.25, but not taking it, the range is too narrow"), there was never any reason to exit the position through the two short signals above because once it broke through previous resistance @ 929.00, no meaningful retracement occurred and the uptrend was intact. Up until this point my view of things had been range trading and I allowed that to cloud the fact that price had now broken out and I should be long and stay long until invalidated. (Hog, I broke the golden rule to take my signal and stay with the trend until price says otherwise!) Short @ 936.50, first retracement of a green bar since the run up started, stop moved to b/e because I was âtop-pickingâ and with GOOG and IBM earnings tonight I figured there was a good chance the rally could resume. Stop hit b/e. Couldâve scalped a couple points on this one, but honored the stop. Short @ 939.00, end of day pullback from highs, covered @ 937.00 to close the day flat. +2.0 Watched GOOG after hours and asked myself, how the heck do you trade THAT???
I always appreciate your kind and helpful words, RN! It's amazing how detached I am paper trading. I have a fear that I will think differently somehow, or think too much, most likely when I go live with ES. I still do that when trading stocks; thinking instead of acting quickly and either missing the trade or getting in at a less-than-ideal place. I'm hoping to get some input on my chart today from futures traders. I'm not sure what my strategies indicate. I was upset with myself for not taking that one signal, if nothing else at least going long on the break through resistance. Does it mean I need more practice or is it time to jump in the pool?
then do not do paper trading. you did not take the breakup trade, you should said to yourself, it is ok. since the market may reverse at the breakup point, it is statistically valid in an uptrend market, most are diven by GOOG/IBM earning annoncement expectation. after you change your strategy to trend following, you find lots of time there is no trend or actually market traps, still you will get lots of whipsaws. or forget about ES, trade what you are comfortable with. Fading is ok, most time it is a great strategy, maybe you need some filters, comb out those fake movement, just do not short any pop or long any dip, you need say to yourself, some pops are shortable, some dips are buyable. the same applies to trend following, not every rally is a buy, not every drop is a sell, still you need filters whether fundamentals or technicals or whatever. you said 3 points loss cut, that will put you lots of pressure, you need very accurate timing, then you can realize this, better use 10points or 20 pints loss level, you will feel much better, but you will think 10points are way too much, the odd is you may win everytime
I looked at your ES chart. You have keltner channels on it......get rid of those lines. Your mission "Should you decide to accept it" (Mission Impossible tv program, ha) is to catch the intraday trends and channel lines are more for scalping the channel swings. That is not bad but for you at this stage it is confusing your thinking........just as you say. Later you can do some sharpshooting but for starting in ES you want the BIG picture of intraday "RUNS". Your chart notations clearly show you are on the right track but still mixing up objectives. Thats your main problem this early in your trading. Guess what? I see you ordered Al Brooks book, good. From what i see from scanning his book (i will read it word for word later), you will get your $50 dollar back in spades because that book is going to show you not only how to read the bars but also how to read the signals (clues) the bars offer to the informed trader. You started out as a scalper of stocks and it shows, ha. You are looking for reversals to EARLY once in a trend. In intraday trends there indeed are micro or lessor trends that will not reverse the larger trend in most cases, to reverse a BIG trend you need a signal relative to what is being reversed or continued on. Intraday today start was a + 2 handles on initial LONG and then a minus 1 handle on the intraday low bar at 1005 est, ( i see your chart is not based on eastern time). That low bar was a key reversal bar as it closed at 935.50, i did not go long there as i was thinking 1st hour breakout. The 1st hour breakout did not occur until 1400 est......BUT, at the 1345 bar , 929.00 the up move was well formed as the prior 3 bars clearly showed the bulls were taking control. Between 930.00 and 931.00 area you saw a little consolidation of the breakout and look back at the 1st hour high at 931.00 and the shorts were all in deep dung if that 1st hour breakout tied to the move from 929.00 top of lunchtime range gets taken out. BINGO!!! it took off. Went up to 937.50and consolidated a bit as the new bulls reloaded and the now beaten shorts licked their wounds. I saw the retrace of 3 handles down to 934.50 and had that as a holding area............it takes more than a 3 handle retrace to negate a round number 10 handle leg up. Think of LEGS as continuations, always think another LEG in a good move......thats what the big players are looking for. They used all that powdre to drive the mkt up 10 handles.........they will not give it up so easy. Sure enough, price made a final LEG up to the high at 940.75. Then it was late and price dropped . Think legs, think continuations................NOT reversals so easy. Think in terms of why we go to see a show for. What do we want to see? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-ICLF2aYjA&feature=related Legs, beautiful legs, be it on women or in mkts.
Great trading once again ND ... also very good comments BH. If I may offer just 1 piece of advice, it's to be well aware of econ news that's due out. Today that quick drop at 10am NY time, which gave you your biggest gainer for the day, may or may not have been related to the Philly fed release, but I suspect it may have been - especially since the move was completely erased in short order. That was the largest bar of the day, and easy money for those lucky enough to be on the right side, which you were, and you played it well. But your stated entry of 929.75 would've had to have been right before the news release and whatever signals you use to trade normally can become a coin toss just ahead of news. 10am is the usual time in RTH, of course. All that said, very impressive trading.
>>>>>>On some trades � you�ll do everything perfect, the setup will be there � you�ll take it� and the flipping thing fails�. It�s just the way it works�..<<<<<<<<< i found this video helpful on the subject of mistakes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8gtLtaNTwo nodoji would like to see more of your es charts. thanks for the great journal.
look at ES today, the morning high is 936.25, if you try breakup, you are wrong agian. even you have 3point loss cut there, you lost it alreday whatevr. there is no support or resiatnce there, you need use filters to tell you how to execute your strategy. today's is bound to take a rest day I just faded it at 937, you must know whwn to fade or when to go with the order flow, otherwise you