Social distancing is working, trend is less fevers last seven days. https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical
Sorry but there is Zero evidence to support that this is bad enough to warrant the damage being done. Not like you can trust the numbers, hospitals all quite last few days, then they post 5900 new cases and 619 deaths ( mostly OAP homes with no attempt to help from the look of it )
Unless there in care homes, then I guess no votey, no hospital care. It's not about old people, that's an excuse the millennials are the scared ones they just say that cause it sounds better, go on Facebook, all on about people miles apart on a beach, no bugger caring about care homes
Thank you for posting this, but you can see the reception. I got the same reception a week ago, on an ultramarathon list famously populated with economists, statisticians, and genuine rocket scientists. Eventually, we'll realize that without population incidence, we have nothing. And whether that comes before or after we have destroyed lives of a social species through "social distancing".... it will come *after* we declare the crisis over, have it re-bloom 3 weeks later, and cycle back to shut-downs again and again and again. We are not on a viable long-term strategy, and we won't *get* a viable long-term strategy until we have sound numbers from which to work. Period.
Southall, you contribute *much* to ET's trading threads, but this whole populationy-cohorty-actuarial thing seems juuuuuust a bit outside your wheelhouse.
Iceland currently has 1400 cases, 4 deaths and 11 in serious/critical condition If half of those in serious/critical die there will be 10 cases out of 1480 = 0.7%
And what if none of them will die? Why turn solid data into speculations about “if”? Or when more people die than other data will also change and there will be more samples. Just wait for more data and use actual data without speculating.