No, you don't need a trend

I like the way your trades are annotated in NinjaT, are those custom? Care to share?

Thanks,

T_182

 

Your trading methodology is quite strange - you don’t place a stop order, but instead if you get the direction wrong – you add to your position, AND you don’t pay much attention to timing. Wow. And you are a scalper? What happens, say if you get the direction wrong 3 or more times in a row? seems a bit risky.

“I have a 90% batting average and brokerage statements to prove it. I've been criticized for my method over and over, lol. That “only thing that really matters to me is the shape of my equity curve.”
Can I see a sample of your trading log; I am not trying to criticize or anything, just curiosity. (If not, that’s ok as well)

 

I will PM it to you later in the day. If I forget PM me.

What happens, say if you get the direction wrong 3 or more times in a row? seems a bit risky. ---------->>>> The best way to answer this is my system has been tried and tested and although my timing is not perfect it is good enough to get me in the ball park and 3x wrong is unlikely. I use a margin of error system that takes care of that when it happens because it does happen.

It should be noted, I certainly have gotten my clock cleaned by the market. Everyone has. This method isn't a perfect method but it's one that works extremely well for me.

 

It's Global Strategy Trader. It's something anyone has access to.

 

samuelg, think about this for a minute.....you'll probably agree that 95% of traders lose money, right? So if the majority of traders "follow" the market and the market is going down what should you be doing?

People will look at this and say, "but PFT, the market rallied 10 pts." You could have rode it 10 points but you faded and only made 1, or 2. My response: And how did you know the market was going to rally 10 points and what is your plan for timing that move? You don't know when the next big market move will occur and you will get wiped out trying to catch it, or at least 95% will. But -- now this is the important part -- you most certainly do know when a 10 point move <b>has</b> occurred. Is there something you can do with that information?

 

I liked your style up until you mentioned you fade a trend.

I really hope you do ok in the long run.

Why not put those dual MA's to better use?

 

in my opinion most lose money because they have problems exiting a trade, especially w/ futures. i been backtesting the YM (for scalping), and there is a 50% chance that my trade will hit a 10 point target, but that probability drops in half - if i go for a 20 point target. i think most people aim for a 20 points or higher targets (or some don't even have profit targets) and give up most of their profits instead.

and no i don't follow the crowd, i just think of my profit targets based on probabilities - for a day like today - hitting a 10 point target is highly probable, but a 20 point target is unlikely. so i tighten my stop after a 10 point target.


and to your methodology - you seem to be going against the trend, it works great in choppy days, but what if the market starts to trend in big moves? how do u handle that?

 

I don't pee into the wind. If a strong trend begins I will either jump on it or stand aside. I like my system because it fits my personality but I don't argue with the market. If it's gonna trend it's gonna trend.

 

If simply assuming that markets remain in 3 stages..uptrend, downtrend, or sideways for equal amounts of time.

That would imply you could only trade 1/3 of the time. With trending being the most "profitable" (at least in theory). Why not hone your skills a bit on trending? I mean, you obviously have quite a bit of the puzzle right now.

 

A trend will permit you a breakout trade (assuming you are on the right side)

Now the beauty of a breakout is that it is momentum driven and so timed properly it will put you in profit immediately.

What can you do to influence trend?

The market is driven by strikes entering on the bid and ask and this in turn produces streaming data.
As a Trader, you decide to bundle this data into bars as a matter of convenience, rather than reading the streaming ticker.
How you arrange these bars is the basis of your trading style whether you are aware of this or not.
Faster bars will generate more trend where others see only noise, and this is your opportunity to trade the momentum breakouts.
How you exit is another matter that you need to deal with very carefully as there is nothing worse than seeing profit disintegrating into loss.

regards
f9