No, you don't need a trend

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by ProfitTakgFool, Dec 17, 2007.

  1. The futures market chops more than they trend. If you want to trade this market you have to be able to trade both conditions. Last week someone posted "it's impossible" to make money in a choppy market. it's not. In fact, that's the best market to make money. When the market chops buy down, sell up and take profits like a fool. I made my goal in less than one hour today.

    The only trade I'm not happy with in here is the first one. My timing was off and the downside risk was high so I took my 2 ticks and got out. The rest were good.
  2. And it IS possible to pick a bottom. It's high risk, but only if you don't know what you are doing.

    If you try this do the foolish thing and take a quick parital to manage risk and let the rest ride.
  3. xiaodre


    To anyone reading this: there is a big difference between playing a bounce off a keltner band, and picking a bottom in a downtrend.

    Please don't confuse the two.
  4. I don't use Keltner bands and I specifically referred to this as a choppy market. You are correct, picking a bottom in a downtrend is virtually impossible.

  5. This was also a buy_market, not a limit. This trigger was based purely on interpretation of price action. There are no bands that line up at 69.00 on this particular trade.

  6. It depends on your style JJ. You get shaped by your experiences. When I 1st started trading the futs I looked for trends but rarely saw one so I switched to a chop trader -- i.e. buy down, sell up, take profits. Admittedly, I'm not a good trend trader. Today I'm raking in the coin, tomorrow you may be. It's all good tho, as long as you know where your strengths and weakness are. The first 2 hours are easily my best time of day because that's where most of the chop occurs.

    I can make money in a trending market but not like I can in a choppy market.

  7. PTF,

    Every time you have a winning trade, you are the trend.

  8. Huh, what a great way to think. I like that f9!

  9. how far do you place your stops? and what is your typical profit target for a day like today?

    i placed a trailing stop at 15 ticks (YM), and got stopped out twice. but ofcourse after i hit the profit target of 11 ticks, i tighten the stop to 5 ticks.
  10. This is sure to bring the pundits out :))

    I don't place stops in a traditional way because experience has taught me I will get stopped out on noise when I should be buying.

    My primary means of managing risk is how I manage my account. The triggers I took there are a very small percentage of my equity so if I'm wrong on these triggers then I start "building" a position by buying more (I did that on my second trade). I will only "build" a position that falls within my risk tolerance. If/When I get to that point I place my stop. My triggers are always on the 1's but they are supported by what's happening on other time frames. My timing doesn't have to be perfect, just close.

    My trading priority method goes like this:

    1. Money Management
    2. Risk Management
    3. Timing

    Timing the market is a <b>distant</b> third. This is the biggest mistake traders make. They make timing their priority, which is the reason most fail.

    I have a 90% batting average and brokerage statements to prove it. I've been criticized for my method over and over, lol. That only thing that really matters to me is the shape of my equity curve.

    #10     Dec 17, 2007