smoked? looks like the near-month contracts haven't dipped to take the place of the sept ones..... i don't think there will be a tremendous spike in ng, but the price will rise. we only have about a week of supply storage(sans production). I am still bullish on ng. and thanks, i have yet to be "smoked" on those plays. get at me in jan and we will see if i am "smoked".
Are you basically making a calendar play on ng, karl? I'm looking at ng suppliers, and it is just brutal. What do you think can turn that around - won't it take extreme weather?
yes - it will take some moderately extreme weather. I say moderately becuase ng companies are starting to pull production out of the market. I see this as a setup for excessive drawdowns in the ng space 60% of the way[end of feb] into the winter.
The one thing you having going for you on the trade is lack of storage. With ng stocks where there at, though, I still think it will take a very cold November/December to wring out the inventory levels.