Just before I posted this, I was actually bearish and trying to convince myself that the market was too. But then I tried to honestly, without any long/short bias, look at what the market action was telling us and how the market reacted to news items. I felt that it was wishful thinking on my part (and others) that the market would take a hit so we could make a quick buck on the short side. <b>I'm not posting this to say gee, I'm so smart, I called the market. This is a reminder to myself to always consider the argument for the other side of my position.</b> It's way too tempting to cling to an opinion because you want to HAVE an opinion so you can make money off of it! If you have no opinion, you can't take a position and make money off of it. So the search begins in earnest for a reason to believe in one market direction or another. And the desire for a correct opinion sometimes leads us to commit to a point of view just because we want to have that opinion that will make us money. The important thing is to always make sure we're adapting our trading to the opinion of the market because there's no way in hell we can make the market adapt to our opinion.
Great call! BTW... No way stocks are selling off in October. Sure, there will be some little dips, but nothing at all like May.
I am amused, and I do not want to be interpreted as condescending: But if history is any guide, it tells us that people simply can not predict the future of the stock market. Not by reading charts, not by analyzing fundamentals, and not by relying on psychological metrics - nor by any other measure. Why do people keep forgetting what, in reality, is a convenient truth?
lol what short interest? short interest in relation to total shares outstanding hasn't moved in years. look at tv and show me 1 person not ready to do cartwheels he's so excited by the market. the bullishness on tv is astounding, put to call ratio is around .08-.085 lately and the vix is 11. i bet the bullish % is up near 55% this week. the fear level is nonexistent. hell yeah there's alot of fear
Curious. So you think what Pabst said about SPX has reached its high is wrong? Thanks. Dang-- I was going to buy some puts
I haven't mentioned it publicly until now, but I DO buy into the midterm elections theory: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=75364&highlight=dow+gasoline
Market Vane and UBS Investor Optimism surveys both out with reading of bulls above 70%. Happy happy joy joy.