-Growth is lower but strong at 2.9% GDP, -Fed appears to have stopped hiking rates and some are saying they'll cut rates next, -Unemployment and inflation numbers are good, -We're coming out of a period of extreme, intense pessimism through the summer, -Oil and gasoline prices are dropping, -N. Korea and Iran are relatively quiet, -A lot of people have already positioned shorts for Sept.... We're going higher. Unless I'm wrong.
i certainly would feel more confident if we weren't going into sept so overbot -- tough to say what big guns will do come next week. my two cents are we're in for a bit of a shakeout
Lots of bulls about Although a few sellers here... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=76021
aaii bullish ratio skied to 57% this week. i'd say we don't tank in sept but in the oct -nov period. lots and lots of bad preannoucements coming. we've already seen a ton. the last 3 weeks has bene on bs manipulating vol. we'll see what happens the next few weeks
May be it is time to get some options in index products like SPX, NDX & RUT after the long weekend. Get some 3 month put calendar spreads or simple put or put spread options.
Bull markets climb a wall of worry. I'm worried when worry is waning. Case in point is the Fed. They've been raising rates for three years and the market has gone straight up. Likewise oil. P/E's are not only reasonable but coupled with relatively low rates dare I say cheap. However the inverted Treasury curve is saying something and I suspect it's utterances are not a bull item for the economy in 2007. I agree with Joeyata that Q4 could produce quite a selloff and in IMO it could mark a multi-year high.
That's true what happened to don't fight the fed? 17 rate hikes and we're higher than when the fed started 2 years ago.
Market does continue to be bullish for all the reasons stated but does seem a bit overbought short term. But as you say we'll see what the "real players" have to say about all this next week and the week after that. There hasn't really been much major bad news lately, thus the melt up. Seems the Iran defiance issue has mostly been ignored. Sure was a boring last hour and a half here to try to trade index futures. I thought the market might pull back more going into the 3 day weekend. But as we're saying, it's just very bullish now. The pullback in crude has really helped all this too. And they downgraded the hurricane forecast for the rest of the year today. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060901/sc_afp/usweatheryear
well if call the fed minutes good or construction spending today not bad then i guess things not bad. the market has ignored the huge pickup in earnings warning. if we were at spx 1000 i could udnerstand but we've run for 4 years basically and have not really corrected in that time. so i would have thought any slowdown ine arnings would kill the market. we'll see what happens the last 4 years
we are not overbought - the volume the past several weeks has been pathetic, thus no conviction in the market. early reports are that when the players start coming back from the hamptons, the b ullish bias will continute.......