No top yet

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ig0r, Jan 28, 2004.

  1. ig0r


    Still healthy for now, let's take a look at a few charts.

    DJIA- Has rallied quite a bit over past two months and has been holding off a correction quite well. Wouldn't be surprised if we go to 10250 or so (to the 50 ma) in the next 2 days. After that look for buying opportunities.

    QQQ- Has actually been somewhat of a laggard over the past 5-6 months. If it wasn't for the intense support at 36 (2 std deviations, 50 ma, several tests in the past few months right before it broke through). Was long a QQQ call position which I closed out today at close for a loss. Waiting for QQQ to drop to 36, if 36 holds there I plan to re-establish long, very bullish when resistence becomes support. Flat options-wise for now, another play for 36 would be a long straddle. If support holds then we have lots of up room, if it doesn't than we could fall quite a bit.
  2. ig0r


    Here's DJIA 1 year
  3. ig0r


    One more thing to add, volume picking up as it has been for all the corrections of this bull move. You make your own decisions :)
  4. Has retraced 50% of the rally up off the early December lows.

    Good support at 41.50 - 41.20
  5. ig0r


    Dow has corrected very little since the original post, all I can say is that it still has pleany of room to drop, currently stalling around 25 MA and starting to slip. Look for a strong move down towards 50 MA and for strong support at around 10300.

    QQQ has corrected quite a bit since this post, as expected. In fact, I believe it is way ahead of other indices at this point, correcting more than 50% of the recent move up. Still believe this is simply a correction in the up-trend, we are quickly approaching the 36 support I spoke of. After hours actions leads me to anticipate another down day tomorrow, most likely testing 36. This is a very key level and no doubt many will be watching this. I am currently flat in my options account, although tomorrow at open I plan to go long 10 march 37 calls. If 36 holds tomorrow, friday I will most likely add another 10 march 38 calls. From there will wait for the move to begin before adding more. I belive that QQQ will lead the resumption of the trend if it holds 36 and on the other hand will lead a change in trend if 36 breaks on volume. That's all for now, attached is a QQQ chart; keep eyes peeled tomorrow, will be an important day with QQQ testing 36 and SPX testing 1120 support, the market hangs in the balance.
  6. The QQQ and the rest of the NDX has fallen on hard times ever since INTEL reported its earnings a couple of weeks ago.

    SMH is weighted to the tune of 72% to INTC, AMAT, and TXN.
    Now trading under the 50-day MA at:

  7. Look for a "measured-move" in the SPX that would target the 1109 level. This is where the first leg down off the highs would be equal to the second leg down, hence "measured".
  8. ig0r


    You mean same size as the two big down days? Yes, this is a possibility, but if it happens I can't see QQQ holding 36 in a situation like that
  9. No, not the same size of the 2 big down days. . .

    You have to go back to the SPX high in the 1155 handle and the first low off that sell off, which is roughly 1122. Now subtract that leg ( which is 33 points ) from the short little bounce that occured up until about a week ago ( around 1142'ish ) and that is how you get a target for this most recent leg down at:


    Leg A = Leg C at 1109
  10. ig0r


    Ah, I understand. I guess only time will tell... RSI(2) on the QQQ is 1.88, almost guaranteed that we will have at least a small bounce tomorrow or friday
    #10     Feb 4, 2004