When the market turned in march, I was initially skeptical. But i joined the bull trend by March 15th. Mostly expected a bear market rally. When the bounce kept going, i stuck with it but was undecided on whether it be true bull or bear. When the market recovered from the july selloff, and the secondary derivative indicators began to turn, i more or less joined the bull camp. When Q3 earnings started to come in not only beating on earnings but beating on revs, I began believing we were entering a long term bull market, not just a short cyclical one. However, the recent action in the dollar, the skyrocketing prices of commodities, and the drop in the value of the Buck have basically led me to believe that we are only within 3 - 9 months of the "other shoe dropping." I wouldn't try to call a top, but the picture seems to be one where corporations will recover short term while the long term macroeconomic picture deteriorates significantly. Frankly, a continued drop in the dollar alone and corresponding increase in crude prices would be enough to cause a double dip. But, that is only one problem we will face in the next 12 months. Long story short, ive come to believe pretty strongly that the odds of a major correction during the next 6-12 months is pretty likely. The major question is what is the positive delta between now and the oncoming correction. Could be a good 10%-15% in my book, but could be far less.
It's gonna take months for the bear market to resume?? What are we gonna do in the meantime bounce around with Bouncing Betty?
This would be a correction within a bull market. In other words, noise. Those who can catch that correction will do nicely of course. But making 10% within a 50% rally is weak beer.
I would normally expect a relatively new bull market to continue for 2 years+...at this point I am thinking resumption of bear market within 3 - 6 months The macroeconomic picture seems to be developing negatively. Of course, its long and strong until proven otherwise ... i get that.