No such thing as Noise fallacy

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DarkerthanDarc, Apr 17, 2025.

  1. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    yea i can see that point - in my small scalping world by the time something can be recognized, it's had body work and painted a new color.
     
    #41     Apr 18, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  2. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    The Tariffs were known in advance but prices still got hit on implementation's days.
    That's true that most of the time (99.9%) Prices see the News before our eyes.
    But market isn't efficient and it takes time for the news to be fully priced in.
    Depending on the news, traders can expect more or less continuation.
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2025
    #42     Apr 18, 2025
  3. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    i am trading with an electron microscope. 30 minutes to me is like 300 days to you. no exaggeration at all

    so my point is for others that might read - is the effect of a years' worth of tariffs my equal to me the effect of lunch hour. what i do is not affected by news it's only affected by volume. what causes that volume doesn't matter to me.
     
    #43     Apr 18, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  4. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Yeah, I am not trying to sell you something you don't need :p
     
    #44     Apr 18, 2025
    MarkBrown likes this.
  5. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    yea i just can't wrap my head around any trade that last longer than a few seconds to maybe at most a few minutes. i am a visitor from another planet "texas" lol.
     
    #45     Apr 18, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  6. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    There are trends for everyone on every timeframes.
    Ah yeah Texas. What a lovely planet !
     
    #46     Apr 18, 2025
  7. deaddog

    deaddog

    Yup Texas:
    The Texas rancher says"I can get up in the morning. get in my pickup and drive all day and never get all the way around my ranch."
    The Canadian rancher says " Yup, I had a pickup like that once" :)
     
    #47     Apr 18, 2025
    DarkerthanDarc and SunTrader like this.
  8. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Bet that Canadian Rancher was smart enough not to shot bullet holes in the sidewalls too.

    Texans: Big Hat, Big Empty underneath it.
     
    #48     Apr 18, 2025
  9. Traditional theory says you can't trade Fundamentals, I wonder how much A.I. is going to change that.
     
    #49     Apr 18, 2025
  10. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown



    I am open to experimentation - let's make it a project and see what it can do. We need something you want to trade and go from there.

    Dear Trader,

    Using me (AI) to trade the markets using fundamentals can be a powerful strategy—especially when combined with consistent data tracking and timely interpretation. Here's a structured breakdown of how you can use me to support fundamentals-based trading:

    1. Company Financial Analysis
    I can help you:

    • Parse and summarize earnings reports, 10-Qs, 10-Ks

    • Track EPS, revenue growth, margins, debt, and cash flow

    • Evaluate valuation metrics: P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA, PEG

    • Compare fundamentals across competitors or sectors
    How to use it:

    “Analyze this earnings report and tell me if it supports continued growth.”
    “Summarize Apple's latest quarterly statement.”
    “Compare NVDA and AMD on valuation and profitability.”

    2. Macro and Economic Analysis
    I can:

    • Track and explain economic indicators: CPI, PPI, GDP, unemployment, interest rates

    • Explain central bank policies and FOMC statements

    • Map how macro trends impact sectors (e.g., rising rates hurting tech)
    How to use it:

    “Explain how today's CPI affects tech stocks.”
    “How will a rate hike likely affect homebuilders?”

    3. News & Sentiment Filtering
    I can:

    • Scan financial news for relevant events: M&A, product launches, lawsuits

    • Perform sentiment analysis on news or earnings calls

    • Help detect market-moving themes (AI, energy policy, trade wars)
    How to use it:

    “Summarize sentiment from Tesla's earnings call.”
    “Show me major headlines about JPMorgan from this week.”

    4. Sector & Industry Analysis
    I can:

    • Break down sector performance vs macro drivers

    • Track rotations based on macro or earnings season

    • Identify fundamentally strong industries during certain cycles (e.g., commodities during inflation)
    How to use it:

    “Which sectors benefit from a strong dollar?”
    “What industries typically outperform during stagflation?”

    5. Build Fundamental Screens & Watchlists
    I can help you:

    • Create custom screens like:

      “Show me stocks with PEG < 1, ROE > 15%, Debt/Equity < 0.5”

    • Rank companies by quality factors:

      “Top 10 S&P stocks by free cash flow margin”
    6. Automated Fundamental Strategies
    If you're more advanced:

    • You can feed me balance sheet or earnings data in CSV form

    • I can help build models (e.g., DCF, quant-style screens, factor momentum)

    • I can help translate fundamental logic into rules for a trading system
    Important: Fundamentals Need Context
    Fundamentals alone don’t move prices in the short term. They anchor valuations but are often overruled by sentiment, positioning, or macro shocks. This is why:

    • Long-term investors use fundamentals to buy strength

    • Traders combine them with technical levels, liquidity, or positioning data
    ✅ Summary: What You Can Do Right Now
    You can ask me to:

    • Summarize or interpret a company’s financials

    • Backtest fundamental rules (like buying low P/E stocks)

    • Explain the likely market effect of an economic number

    • Create a strategy that buys undervalued, high-growth names
     
    #50     Apr 18, 2025
    DarkerthanDarc likes this.