No such thing as current trend

can you share the basis of this idea?

thanks,

surf

 

There is no such thing as current trend, there are historical trends, one can define the trend for past ten years, ten months or ten days. Trend-following traders anticipate that the historical trends will not reverse in the near future, and position in their directions.

 

This guy Ed looks very similar to Jack. They both try to confuse people by making them go around in maze of WORDS. Soon there will be a Thread " How Ed Seykota took an year's out of New traders' lives'

 

Double-talk. How can there be "two points, both in the now" when the basis of his argument is that "now" is a single point isolated from all other moments? Also, by definition, a trend must consist of more than an isolated moment; literally, "present-trend" is obviously an oxymoron but disputing its semantic validity is a quibble.

"Present trend" is one of those many concepts that we accept without close srutiny of the precision of the semantic validity of its title because we know intuitively what is meant. One has only to study a graph to determine whether or not there has been a trend; since the now-moment is the latest point in that trend the now-moment is part of that trend so that the "present trend" consists of all the moments, including the present moment, that constitute that trend.

What really matters is the way the now-moment is likely to relate to subsequent moments. The graph-identified trend indicates the most probable trajectory for subsequent moments - namely, moments that conform with the trend, assuming that all prevailing factors that caused prior trend-moments to conform to the trend remain constant; that is, there is no reason for the inertia of the trend to be overcome unless at least one of the prevailing factors is critically altered - in which case we see a cessation of the trend.

 

As often seems to be the case you miss the point.

 

not that i agree or disagree with thim, but this guy is no chomp.

"Mr. Seykota himself has put together a money management track record with returns of roughly +60% net of fees over the three-decade span of his trading career..."

http://turtletrader.com/trader-seykota.html

 

Beam me up Scotty!!

 

I'd hate to be stuck in a car with Ed:

"Say Ed, you're going way too fast!"

"Nonsense - at this moment we are not moving."

"Mmmmkay. Can I get out please?"

 

-Bloomberg Markets

So according to his former boss he does well when market is trendless, if he is not then market is trending.

 

Heidegger excellent reasoning!