No such thing as current trend

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bidask, Aug 24, 2007.

  1. bidask

    bidask

    says Ed Seykota

    "All methods of defining trends compare various combinations of historical price points. All trends are historical, none are in the present. There is no way to determine the current trend, or even define what current trend might mean; we can only determine historical trends.

    The only way to measure a now-trend (one entirely in the moment of now) would be to take two points, both in the now and compute their difference. Motion, velocity and trend do not exist in the now. They do not appear in snapshots. Trend does not exist in the now and the phrase, "the trend" has no inherent meaning. When we speak of trends, we are speaking, necessarily, from some or another view of history.

    There is no such thing as a current trend. When we speak of trends we are necessarily projecting our own definitions."

    http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/Trends/index.htm
     
  2. There IS a trend

    look at the 20 year DOW chart and tell me there is no trend


    what a tard

    EDIT: That has to be the ugliest website ever.
     
  3. Ed Seykota has a pretty daughter.
     
  4. long term upward drift is different than trend.

    seykota is correct in this regard.


    surf
     
  5. I think the larger point is that it's never safe to assume that a trend will continue. It can reverse at any point. There are no sure things.

    One should take many factors into consideration, including the trend up to that moment, and make a trade that has a favorable probability of success relative to the defined risk.
     
  6. Here's what you do-- Get on the wrong side of a non trend and then get back to me with the results. Thank you for your time.
     
  7. knowing this or arguing over semantics doesn't make you money in the markets


     
  8. very true, very true---however, it does develop fodder for a current project.:D

    surf:)



    ps. plus it keeps one from being deceived by the market mistress.
     
  9. a CURRENT trend.

    You are looking at the past up until now trend, but Ed means you can't see a trend forming in the NOW because it hasn't formed yet.
     
  10. Everything I have read from Ed gives me the gut feel he wants to pretend he is so much smarter & differnen than everyone else.

    Well said by someone here....Tell Ed to get on the otherside of these current non existing trends!

    Lucky
     
    #10     Aug 24, 2007