No Such Thing As A Down Equities Market

So typical, I always like to see who is the first one to show up on a profit taking drop.

Next they will be saying this is it, a new bear market.

 

Did Bennie just fell aspleep at his job??

 

Overall I would say the majority of posters now are bullish. Sure there are always people who post about black monday or whatever, but they are getting fewer and fewer. I'm still not sure why people have to have an opinion one way or the other. I am always long and short. On days like today, it is magic. On days when the market is straight up and pegged there with no retracement I may underperform, but still manage to walk out ahead. I could care less where the mkt goes. I will say we are completely overbought, and the high beta names are way, way, way overbought and priced for perfection, but who knows when they stop the music?

 

Normally I wouldn't fight against the trend, but a Black Monday wouldn't be so far fetched. There is a lot more bullish sentiment at this level than at 13000.. So a sharp fall would hurt a lot of the hedgies if we see it on Monday.

12700 wouldnt even be that large of a percentage hit.

 

Why not post some of your trades and calls?

 

I don't make "calls". Some of my longs at the moment are crude, natty gas, copper, heating oil. Some of the stocks I own are: BAC, STJ, HPQ, and WFR...I have no index shorts at the moment, I am awaiting the end of this week to show me the way. Some of the stocks that I am short are: Retailers like GPS, JCP, TIF, COH and the airline stocks that I have not covered yet AMR, LCC, and UAUA.

 

These are the setups I talked about. Yesterday after the close the three shorts I had set up were efx, avy and roh. So last night I knew I would trade today.

So since my software gave me three short signals, I traded short this morning. The most I was down on this day was 50.00, and ended up with 570 profit using 20% of my buying power.

I am not saying this is a banner day, because it's not. However, when I say I make money shorting this is the kind of day that works. The market can gap up tomorrow if it wants, but I take these slivers either in the morning or the afternoon sessions. And my position is zero at the end of each day.

I feel likely though that when I run the scans today there will be more short candidates for tomorrow merely because of the price action in the afternoon today.

The overall market does not have to be down to make consistent money in this method. What is difficult for me is the waiting and learning not to trade when those setups don't appear. I don't hold the short positions overnight because I am only looking for a short session of this move.

When the market inches up, as this one has done over the past two weeks, I look for shorts only becausese the power of the move (price action and volume) seems weak. While prices have risen, the power moves the fast ones are on the downside. This makes taking on risk easier because the timeframe for holding the position is shorter

 

This is all the more reason to be sharp for shorts.

So if everyone is buying or has bought, who will be left there to keep bidding up stock? Any selling then triggers a nice landslide.

By the time the guy you think is least likely to buy stocks is talking about buying stocks, and maybe doing so, it's a great indicator to sell.

In blackjack, when the count gets to +5, 6, 7 etc, you increase your bet because you make money as the count falls. In order for it to drop it first has to be high. Now that's a weak analogy because the cards are not replaced in blackjack, in the markets we can't tell if and where more influxes of money will come from to buy. But that's the uncertainty.

If most of the posters (assuming they trade) are now bullish and buying or have bought that is no indication of rising prices. In fact as that number approaches 100%, the likelihood of prices falling approaches 100%.

The only caveat would be if influxes of capital come from previously uninvested sources. Then there would be more buyers.

But the market fact is when the bid drops, prices don't rise. And when everyone who is bullish has purchased stock, the demand and bid drop.

So the bandwagon indicator is a fun one to watch unfold. Of course whatever you trade, just be sure you are on the right side of that trade most of the time.

 

Yah, and i hope there is a chair for me when it stops and i don't end up on the floor.

 

so stock, I post what some of my trades are, and then no response? Oh yeah by the way, I made money today thanks for doubting..