No recession according to BEIGE BOOK

Discussion in 'Economics' started by HedgefundTrader2, Jan 16, 2008.

  1. For days I have been hitting home a simple thesis: recession is not here, we are not in recession. But the naysayers, pessimists, dimwits, bears and whole assortment of nitpicks came out swinging axes at me.

    Well today we received Fed's official word known as BEIGE BOOK report during market hours and according to INVESTORS BUSINESS DAILY at here is the truth:



    Posted 1/16/2008

    The economy expanded at a slower pace in the final weeks of 2007, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday, but continued growth was enough to ease fears of a recession.

    Now start reputing these facts....
    Now start driving fear into the hearts of retail traders..
    Now start panic selling in the markets... a


    Even GOLDMAN SACHS ( those tight fisted institutional sharks/ perpetual traders) also chimed in that recession is here over the weekend prior to Monday's open. Come on guys we know you real well, you are not that smart.
  2., the current market climate is hilarious...

    just shows what a bunch of clowns who control the boob tube can do, they can engineer any situation desired, to make the naive public dump their shares...

  3. They got your co-operation to make you sell stocks while they shorted the damn market to kingdom come!

    Have you noticed how SPX never drops below 1370 to close despite gargantuan amount of pressures? No market can go down straight and if retail investors keep bargain hunting these institutional tactics fail and the markets would have climbed higher.

    We will get a bounce and it may come any day now.
  4. You do know the Beige Book is based on surveys from some time ago and is not current data... In fact it is not data at all but a survey of the different districts within the Federal Reserve. Please do not tell me you are usingthe Beige Book as economic current facts...

    And of course we do not have a recession, you need two quarters of negative growth in GDP and we have not hit the first one yet.

  5. Hello Coach,

    Pleasure you answered my post.

    Yes I look at Beige book every month, its anecdotal and not statistical numbers. I am fully aware, but its a very reliable and markets pay heed to the content, and right after the report market went up.

    But a nasty sell program in the last 1/2 hour destroyed that natural bounce of affirmation today 1/16/2008.

    There is no recession and on top of that Feds are going to cut rates any day.
  6. ah think is why...simply because we are 13 days away from the next FED day...would a 'surprise' cut make that big a difference with the FED mtg only 13 days away?...think cut is coming...sorry
  7. I think my point mainly was that there have been talks of a liklihood of a recession. I have not heard anyone say we are IN a recession. So the Beige Book would naturally not confirm the existence of a recession in that respect but does warn of contuing slowing in economic activity. This is what is prompting the fears of a recession.

    The markets going up or down on the specific timing of the news is not relevant in my honest opinion. The current trend is more important since the Book is based on information already in the public. Themarket has lost a lot of steam since the August fall out and the economic indicators have all gotten worse since then as well, not to mention a less than stellar consumer.

    This are bigger picture scenarios that outweight any random intraday buy or sell programs. Those programs are looking for intraday profits only.

    Rate cuts will not prevent a recession on its own, the problems we are having have nothing to do with the cost of money. Rates were relatively low as of last summer. Cutting rates is not going to stop lay offs for example, it will just help us recover quicker should we enter the recession.

    I think people forget that rate cuts take a long time to take affect on the economy and we just started cutting rates last August.

    It has nothing to do with bulls v. bears, it is just the trend in economic activity that is happening and should continue unless a catalyst other than rate cuts appears.

  8. bro you sound like larry kudlow.


    Im with you 100%, we are NOT in recession.. YET!
  9. Sorry optioncoach,

    we have one popular protagonist claiming the U.S. may already have entered a recession, or will do so shortly....

    You may guess who I am talking of....I mean the "gentleman" talking PIMCO´s and hedge fund Paulson´s books right now...published a book recently and so on...:)
  10. bdon


    The Feds primary job is to guard against inflation. They fear it like a penny trader fears a 1000 shares in the quote.

    We are already in recession. The Fed wouldn't even bother to lower rates if we weren't . By the time they admit to the public we are (there politically minded), we'll mostly likely be on are way out of it. The Fed is always a day late and many dollars short of preventing recession, because they admit to it so late.
    #10     Jan 17, 2008