No Panic on Main Street = Crash Soon?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Sep 23, 2011.

Where is the Bottom?

  1. +/- a few % from the current level

    11 vote(s)
  2. 10% lower

    3 vote(s)
  3. 15% lower

    6 vote(s)
  4. 20% lower

    5 vote(s)
  5. 25% lower

    2 vote(s)
  6. >=30% lower

    9 vote(s)
  1. there are many bearish headlines but i don't sense the real panic. does this imply that this bear could go further still?

    "The MSCI World Index encompasses the equity performance of 24 developed markets. Following eight 20 percent pullbacks for the index since 1987, the measure, on average, goes on to fall another 9 percent, according to research by Birinyi Associates. If history is any guide, about 80 more days of weakness are ahead with a bottom at the start of December, according to Birinyi.

    Nineteen of 29 major world markets—both developed and emerging—are now in bear markets, according to data gathered by Birinyi."
  2. Main Street isn't panicing because Main St isn't paying attention. It never fully embraced equities after '02, and even more left the playing field after '08.
  3. Exactly.

    Most people just have whatever is left of their 401k's, which they stopped adding to b/c they've been unemployed for 2 years, and they rarely check on it.

    The public is done with wall st. and their "heads we get rich, tails the public bails us out" b.s.

    They know the game is rigged, and now some "regular people" (outside the business) are starting to ask about HFT and what computer algorithms are doing to their stocks.

    The shell game is over. All that's left is to downsize wall st. firms by about 50%.
  4. so is it over for the financial industry after this bear fills his stomach?
  5. mikeenday

    mikeenday Guest

    it surely feels so.
    thus better get rich quick to catch the last few waves.

    i.e., buy puts all the way.

  6. sheda


    Yea well streets being downsized and relocated into log cabins under free ways.

    Over your american dead bodies.
  7. I'd agree that the financials are in the shitter and probably will be for some time, but for the short-term at least I think we'll see the market coming up to correct ( / take advantage of) the huge sell off after the "Operation Twist" announcement.

    In the longer term....I think fiscal policy in the coming election year will be non-existent or half-assed at best; more showmanship and propaganda than anything.

    If Greece survives I think the fear will subside enough for the markets to rebound long enough for the election, but if it defaults we're definitely going down more than a few %.
  8. My fantasy is a crash only happens when the popular psychology is bullish. USA stock index values stopped increasing about 6 months ago.

    I think this is a good time to watch the new high price list. Any company showing a new high stock price now may be growing.
  9. Ash1972


    Prior to the 2008 meltdown, the DJIA had been steadily DECLINING for around a year from the 2007 late Summer high.

    Yes, fantasy is the operative word here.
  10. The market was signaling a possible turnaround on Friday. Now we have this bad weekend headline. If Friday turnaround was in anticipation of positive news from G20 then we may see some more down pressure. Does G20 ever produce any meaningful announcements?

    G-20 Debt Crisis Approach: Some Talk, But Little Action
    Published: Saturday, 24 Sep 2011 | 1:34 PM ET
    Text Size
    By: Jeff Cox Senior Writer

    WASHINGTON—Those looking for answers from this week's World Bank/IMF conference were presented only with more questions and vague reassurances that global policy leaders are acutely aware of the problems and prepared to act.

    International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks at the Annual Meetings
    IMF Photograph | Stephen Jaffe
    International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks at the Annual Meetings
    Nowhere was the inability to solve the debt crisis more readily apparent than at the G-20 news conference Friday.
    #10     Sep 24, 2011