Before asking anyone to disprove your hypothesis, why dontcha first prove that markets are in fact EFFICIENT. I personally don't think the market is efficient, nor was it in the past or ever will be in the future. Here's a case in point. We're told that the stock market looks ahead at least six months out in time. Six months ago, that is, way back in June, everyone was actually pretty damn bullish, including Bernanke & Co.
It's a thoughtful and relevant post. Screen trading is indeed losing it's edge as much as it paved the way for new opportunities twenty years ago. To say that one can learn a few key chart patterns and take consistent profits is drivel. To have a good technical mind which can use complex software to analyse statistical risk and then automate a system based on these findings is not. I do agree that it may be possible to snatch the odd profit from a high volume and momentum driven market when the conditions are right and you can identify an opportunity from experience. The fact is that one profits from irrational moves and this is the only edge today. For this to happen there has to be radical distortions that return to equillibrium but they don't happen that often and you have to be ready for them when they do. Arbitrage software is improving all the time, taking these edges away. Perhaps it will all come down to only playing extreme moves based on hysteria etc. This is why index futures trading is a sure way to throw money away, just no edges to be had any more. Freak events and commodities, runs on currencies and overreactions are the way to go for the small player, I believe.
That's a nice analogy. If you have night vision goggles where the others don't - you have an edge. But in the market everyone has goggles We all have the same computers, access to the same database and looking at the same price. The only difference is in our heads. But as I explained being smart in a place where there is a million average smart people is not a nice place to be. Imagine going to an auction for a painting where there is only one other bidder. You can capture some good value even if you don't know much about art. But if there were 100 bidders and you were the most informed you would capture much lower profit because you would have to pay a much higher price. There are millions of bidders and sellers in the financial markets... The odds of extracting value are stacked against you.
Not true. The real cause for the current market distortion (eg. price irregularities) is the constant government intervention. In lieu of that, there's ALWAYS an opportunity to make profit.
No one on EliteTrader will beat the market⦠here is why Because you're close-minded, you keep refusing to see other successful traders here, your conclusion is solely based on your own experience and those's who wrote/supported "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" in order to console themselves for their unsuccessful story on Wall Street. Thatâs like: "Look, it's not because I'm not smart than others, it's because the market is intrinsically function that way".
You can say that markets are not rational at times. Unfortunately you can't say when except in hindsight, which means that the irrational behaviour cannot be profitably exploited. This is the meaning of "efficient" in the Efficient Market Hypothesis which I refer to.
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What is apparent Neutrino is that you cannot read or understand price, when traders do not understand price, market movements appear to be random but they're not & no the market is not unpredictable as you say, there is an incredible degree of order. Send me a private message & I'll gladly show you examples that clearly disproves that markets are random in their movements or that the market is hard to beat. And when traders say that the market cannot be beaten, it's typically said in response to appease their own incompetence or failure. I believe i understand your message, if I can't beat the market, no one else can, right Neutrino?
I claim that the success of other people and my own success in trading is a result of luck - being at the right time, at the right place, with the right strategy that fit well over the price up to this moment. I am trying to be critical of my performance just as if it were someone else's.