Short term bottom? I like it. Here are some views... 2 year <img src="http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/6926/sp5002yeares4.png"></img> 1 year <img src="http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/271/sp5001yearov7.png"></img> 6 months <img src="http://img385.imageshack.us/img385/5769/sp5006monthsk9.png"></img>
Respectfully, only amateurs and beginners make hard and fast predictions like that. Now you have your ego involved by telling everyone you think this is a bottom and will defend that and it may cost you money. Amateurs predict and want to be right, pros just want to make money. A price in the market is never too high and never too low. Just because we are down 35% does not mean things are not necessarily going lower. Is it a bottom? I donât know and I donât care. Whose fault is it and why? Yes it is bad but again, I donât care as it relates to my trading. I am a trader so I only care about taking what the market will give me and donât care why it is happening. Up or down doesnât matter. Movement is what I want. You should enjoy the volatility and make as much as you can because it never lasts. Remember, human nature doesnât change. History will always repeat itself. This is just another bubble. There have been many in the past and there will be many more in the future. Only the instruments of doom change over time. Tech bubble, S & L bubble, real estate bubble, derivatives bubble and tulip bubble. Only the name of what causes the bubble changes. Position yourself accordingly and take advantage of these occurrences. The most important thing you can learn from this is that you are on your own to do your research and make your bets accordingly. Why so many people expect unbiased advice and/or assistance from those who have a vested interest in perpetuating a cycle still boggles my mind. Do you think a tech analyst during the tech bubble is really going to hurt their own IB relationships and give a negative report about a stock, even if they make no money? Do you expect a mortgage broker, whose job and income is based on making loans, to warn you about potential pitfalls in every aspect of your loan? It is their job to put a positive spin on every product so long as they donât lie about it. Just like a tech analyst. Just like it is every salesmanâs job. Your job as an adult is to make your decision and do what is best for you. So if you get an ARM loan, when rates are at historical lows, and donât plan for the fact that they may go up or even consider that, then you are not an adult and deserve whatever happens. Donât even get me started about the rating agencies (S & P, Fitch, Moodys, etc.) that helped cause this latest calamity. In interviews they still say they are doing a great job of analyzing exotic instruments and somehow really believe it. Life, like the futures markets, offers great opportunities and low entry barrier costs. But markets are not designed to protect people from themselves and shouldnât be. As an adult, you make your decisions and LIVE with the consequences of your choices. That is what being an adult is supposed to be about. Good luck to all. BM
It's absolute statements like the one above that lead those in control of the market to test extreme values. As long as people speak in this way, the market will hurt them. When people give-up is when the pain will be over. Also, and this is slightly off-topic, but anyone who cites, âconsumer spending is still strongâ should be shot. The impending dip will be characterized by nothing but a pinched consumer. More people will be unemployed than in recent history, credit limits on cards will be reduced. Sadly, our sheepish consumer wonât anticipate this despite the warning and wonât truly reign in spending until they are broke.
I have to respectfully disagree with you. An amateur LOOKS for tops and bottoms. I NEVER LOOK for them... but I know when I see one. When I do see them I throw ET a bone just for fun. I do not get "attached" to a position cause I posted it on an anonymous message board. I can tell you I will throw this position away faster then you can blink if I feel my premise has changed or the technicals show I'm wrong.
Yes, it's all the fault of 3 people. The Democratic-controlled Congress had nothing to do with it, despite their love for loose-lendin' Fannie and Freddie. And a true financial mastermind like Al Gore would've sailed with ease through all this. Give me a break. They're just 3 guys who messed up some things but also inherited much of this. I'm not defending them, but I doubt any combination of Presidents, Fed Chairs and Treasury Secretaries over the last 20 years would do much better. They tried solutions that "worked" in the past for things like LTCM and S&L, and so far it hasn't been enough. That's all there is to it. Volcker/Reagan would be the only pair in recent history who may have done something radically different. Quote from bxptone:[/i] Bush was in charge, he picked Bernanke and Paulson. So we had the 3 stooges still leading us. Very stupid people do very stupid things, we have a long ways to go to clean up the trail of crap these guys will leave behind. [/QUOTE]
why do people waste their time patting themselves on the back here?Didnt they just make a lot money off their fantastic bang-on call and have better things to do than post here? I vote this for chit chat.Or the poster can post a screenshot of his winning trades today to show that he had balls to follow his 'call'.
Looks like the call was off. Sellers are not even close to done. Impressive action today by the bears. Can't even get a fake pre-election rally!!! Pray for investors/bag holders/IRA watchers... it will be sad to see these old men looking for minimum wage jobs once their retirement savings are gone. Only thing that can pop this market now is a 100 point cut... and that will be sold off with the quickness!!!
At this point it's what shouldn't be done, but being Ben get's his orders from you know who, that's what he will do, which will prop the market up for a few more months and will shift the real crash onto the next president whoever that is. That's why I still think your right about a bottom for now, just a short term one (matter of months/1 year)
[/QUOTE] Lol sadly those 3 people kinda hold the balance of the world in their hands, that's why it's so scary. Really though, you should substitute Bernanke with Greenspan. I kinda feel bad for Bernanks to be honest, even though everyone is blaming him. Edit: And I'll always stick by my thinking that the Dem's are not the best, just the better of the 2 evils. We need more then 2 parties. I feel like the Dems were suckers in falling for the, WE NEED THE BAILIOUT NOW, garbage. And in all honesty, maybe we did need it. Who really knows, but I do know they are trying to clean up a bubble that's been building when they weren't in charge. But screw politics, beceause theirs Dems I hate as much as some Republicans I hate and vice versa. Greed is really what this boils down to. And I don't know how u regulate that.