No one is talking Black Monday

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by detective, Mar 6, 2009.

  1. This is a clear sign of complacency in this market. The fear was palpable in October and November, now it is just a bunch of bottom pickers who say the coming bear market rally will be gigantic.

    Still a lot of downside left in this bear market, bottom is probably in late summer/early fall when all hope is lost.

    Put/call ratios are lower than they were several days ago when we were trading stronger.

    Short the rallies, do not buy the dips.
  2. Cutten


    I agree. It's amazing how little panic there is, considering that the market is down almost 30% in a couple of months.
  3. all the "investors" I talk to are saying the same thing " i can't sell now". not sure where that is on the scale of emotions in relation to panic and fleeing.
  4. Black Monday from these levels is ~130 SPX points. It's a big deal from a percentage perspective, but from an absolute number of points at risk perspective, it means a lot less than it did just a year ago.
  5. m22au


    I know it's only one indicator, but the VIX is "only" at 51, and not above 80 (like November) or above 95 (like October).

    In short, I think there is still quite a bit more selling (duration and/or magnitude) before a multi-week bottom is reached.
  6. S2007S


    I would rather see a one week 30% decline then a slow steady 30% decline, im surprised we have not seen the market drop 10%+ in a single day, that would have been the best way to get most sellers out of this market.
  7. That is between the denial and acceptance phase of the emotional spectrum.

    All those stocks held by investors is potential overhead supply on any rally attempts.

    This is clearly worse than anything since the 1930s, yet stock prices are still at 1996 levels when Alan Greenspan cried irrational exuberance about the market.

    I don't know about you, but this economy is much worse than it was in 1996.
  8. candles


    black monday - who cares, lol.
    I think everyonw is used to it now, and just expects most days to be down big. Hell, I shorted the ES in the ES journal today when we'd already dropped boat load and made 7 handles. Very much unlike me, but you must adapt,
  9. No, people are not expecting October and November like moves, because they haven't happened lately. I don't get easily scared, but back in October/November, I was scared about a Black Monday like scenario happening at anytime. Those days had 60-80 handle intraday ranges, now the intraday volatility is back to more sane levels, 20-40 handles, so no, most traders are not expecting the craziness of October and November. This reflected in the lower VIX than from last fall's levels.

    No, many traders are expecting a big bear rally to happen at anytime, not another big down day.
  10. Cutten


    It's in the "denial"/"too low to sell" category. I.e. an extended process which only ends once much lower prices are sufficiently scary to cause panic liquidation.
    #10     Mar 9, 2009