Not really....the OIL boom has now PUMPED over $2 TRILLION from the US to the middle east over the past 7 years of wealth transfer. They got the PUMP, we got the DUMP!
"Not at the places I go. Business as usual." Same here....in far NE Texas. T http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/
I look at wallboard. Yep, wallboard. Wallboard is everywhere and the more wallboard purchased the better the economy. Wallboard is used in every house and business in America. The US Gypsum company hasnt sold wallboard this cheap since the early 90s and its on its way this year to selling at a record low. Lows not seen since the early 90s. There has been a 50% drop in wallboard prices. http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...4646-6b89-4fc6-9fa6-b116d44f6d67/PriceVol.pdf
Comparing Chicago and Texas to the rest of the US is apples and oranges. Chicago = commodities, ag Texas = duh, oil. It doesn't have to even produce oil to make money off the oil boom. Virtually all the major service companies are based in Houston.
Excellent post, excellent point. We call it 'drywall' in the midwest, as there are 3 major sources of gypsum board; USG, Georgia Pacific and Weyerhaeuser. Lumber is WAY down, too. Not just rough (stud) lumber, but wolmanized, OSB, plywood, etc. Shingles, vinyl siding and such are still high because of crude oil prices, but should fall steeply during the next 3-6 months. The only materials that are staying and likely to stay elevated are concrete/cement and copper. Many builders have gone with pex tubing (cross-linked polyethylene) as a substitute for copper in their plumbing applications, however. New home building permits are the lowest since 1962. I can't find the link, but if you just do a basic search, you can confirm. It's not just residential, either. Retail, office and other commercial has slowed dramatically.
I'm not sure anything can be viewed in terms of prior trends anymore. Case in point: in past recessions and slowdowns about the only common stocks that outperformed markets were high-end clothing retailers and cosmetics. At just about the time recession hits the same cadre that played a major role and profited from the economic worry are spending premium purchasing power on their wifes and mistresses to keep them around and satisfied. It's a pay-off against a bitter bid of a portion of estates in divorce settlements. You think I'm joking. Anyway, pull up designer retailers and cosmetics in your screener. They nigh all have been delisted.
No offense but the bar crowd no matter how their dressed aren't much of a barometer. You're talking about Rush? The same people that have roommates so they can dress nice and drink a 1/3 of their paycheck on Friday and Saturday? I bet the Civic Opera House is desolate.
I agree...I am also seeing less people out...more businesses shutting down ( lots in the restaurant biz )...even one that was jumping last year shut down six months ago....