I stopped a long time ago trying to predict short term movements, maybe with experience I'll go back to doing it.(or anticipating) Right now the US markets hit resistance for the third time. Anticipating is like holding your rifle up getting ready to shoot the deer, you're not predicting when it's about to come out of the woods.
predicting = analysis then draw a finite conclusion then act on it. anticipate = IF..THEN condition, i.e. if vol goes up then market will trend in the original direction, if vol goes down then market is stalling.
There is nothing wrong with predicting if you have an edge, manage your risk and most importantly fully accept that you could be wrong. A professional trader always knows when his prediction is wrong and exits without hesitation while an amateur will hold on to losses, double down etc because he doesnt want to accept that his prediction was incorrect. Once you live, eat and breathe this concept you will be on the road to success. Anticipating, reacting, predicting.. all the same in my opinion. When you put on a trade you are expecting(predicting) for it to move in your favour or else you shouldnt be trading.
it is kind of mind trick for me, if Bradley chart says today is turn day then my mind is locked into some sort of prediction and if market goes against me I tend to wait for my 'prediction' to come true. As with anticipating, if all conditions are not there, I am gone. btw, this post re-enforced my prediction market will drop, result -$200, I got a good laugh out of it
I thought we were going down today too just based on overnight and early morning action. I got me a nice short on the SPY and was seeing the green, but when the markets turned I failed to adhere to my strategy and I paid for it. It was not a bad day, but at 10 am this moring it was looking pretty ugly! It took me all day after 10am to get back to a .08 gain for the day. Thats what I get for not sticking to my rules. Every now and then even the best traders (not refering to me) sometimes make extremely dumbass mistakes. When your wrong your wrong, so get the heck out. I failed to adhere to that this morning and turned what could have been a great day in to luckily break even day. I give all praise to the ICE, NYX, NMX and YUM for saving my tail today.
Not very many people are good at predicting the markets including the so called pros. Even they make bad calls. But there are too many people who make predictions and fail to follow them up unless the predicton comes true.
I play the game of Speculation. I speculate in Land and in the Markets. Thus, I make a Assumption, a prediction, on infrence. I do not discuss my "predictions" on sites like ET. However, I do make predictions. That is the game of S P E C U L A T I O N. However, to come on to ET, where 99% are desk jockies at some "brokerage firm" or do not trade any of their own capital, to try and Predict for "Glory", a digital pat on the back, is absurd. Leave the "Vocal/Posting" prediction to the Pundits and ET Supa Stars. There are two key elements to "PREDICTION. An entry plan and and exit. Very simple indeed. E