No longer fear of US slow down

Wow what a relief for investors , it is now said that the earlier speculations of the US market slowdown and drop in consumer spending is after all just a speculation . I feel the same , the world’s biggest economy is still robust and can handle a little slow down .

But however it is possible that the US market may slow down over a period of time , Looks like September has been quite a good month for the US market , it has shown some hope and stability which was a surprise to many consumers who feared a steep slow down in the market .

I feel keep a close eye on the market , don’t panic as yet , there is still time , reap your profits as much as you can and bail out once it looks pretty dangerous to stay with it any longer.

 

I am assuming this is tongue in cheek sarcasm?

We are heading over a cliff. Give it a year max. Perfect storm brewing: no consumer demand when home values go into the toilet, and inflation spurred by a crashing buck. Yep, stagflation. Its gonna be here again.

 

That's not exactly a bullish case you're making.

 

There is always somebody yelling fire in the theatre and the sky is falling. Wage rise occurs in the latter part of the business cycle. Speculation on housing is meaningless largely, if wages don't start to run up then that really is a bad sign but so far I am looking on monster.com and seeing a much greater demand for skilled workers.

 

The Market is heading higher, some say the S&P 500 is the best economic indicator. If so this is telling us we're looking good, 5 year highs after all geez!

I think this consumer confidence report was heavily influenced by the drop in gasoline, but it really beat what was expected. I wanna see UofM's CS report friday before I switch over to overweighing consumer discretionary though. If it's good, I think being long in consumer discretionary would be advantageous this holiday season, that is, if gasoline prices stay relatively stable, or fall further.

I wrote about it in my blog a little, but we'll see what happens

 

in my opinion - this is the big money driving shit up - squeezing out shorts and selling into the strength. will suck the max amount of people off the sidelines and into the market and then all of a sudden the bids will dry up and the market will go poof....

i will keep longing with tight stops though - i am not selling into this kind of strength - will wait for confirmation

 

Reality:
1. When markets are near an all time high the probability of them dropping is much greater then the proability of them moving still higher.
2. When the Fed says they can hold off on further rate increases for now because it looks as though the slowing economy will take care of inflationary pressures, that's a very bad sign.
3. Someone here stated: "if wages don't start to run up then that really is a bad sign but so far I am looking on monster.com and seeing a much greater demand for skilled workers." The reality is just the opposite. The stock market hates high wages! As does the Fed. The recent jumps in wages is a dire sign for the economy -- never forget, America was built on cheap labor.
4. We are heading into the worst real estate crash in our lifetimes, and its just getting started. Real Estate/ housing/ building and related are now a much bigger fraction of the total economy than was the case 20 years ago.
5. The US automotive industry is on the ropes.
6. We are mired in an unwinable and very costly war.
7. It's an election year and the effects of negative factors on the economy will be delayed but in the process made more severe when they do finally hit.

Hedge your long positions for protection, be patient with your hedged shorts, day trade, or stay in cash until well after the election and the impact of these negative factors shows its hand.

 

Hey nice, I agree somewhat. Alot of managers are getting pulled into this becasue of the rise. I'm taking on a week to week basis these days. Alot of pundits are talking about homeowners taking out lines of credit to spend out shopping, not just for home iimporvement, I find this hard to fathom myself. Maybe these consumers aren't rational afterall, lol

 

what i've learned, is the market is going up when the market is going up, and it's going down when it's going down

truth be told, i think in many ways things looked a lot better in oct 2000 than at many times since

but there was never a worse time to be in the market then that time

today, $spx closed above the may high

why it did, i have no clue, all i know is that it did

and it's bullish at least until it closes below it

 

Too much bullish sentiment right now.

I'm out three weeks before election day. God only knows what will happen after November.

My book is great, and I'm not going to fight my most basic urge on this.

I will not try to wring an additional 3 or 4% upside out given all the risk.

The only dilemna is what to roll my money into.

I'll figure that one out.

5% money markets aren't that bad in the interim.