The market is around Jan and Mar bottoms, YET VIX is nowhere the levels we saw back then. I am forced to conclude that the bottom will be significantly lower.
We should hit VIX 25 at least if the S&P gets to 1250. That may be enough for a quick pop. But overall I agree with you - very complacent during the recent selloff. Reminds me of 2000 and 2001 when people were relaxed at new lows, continually bottom-fishing.
Today SPY down, VIX down. Does not smell like a bottom. I expect the bottom to smell stinky with everyone crapping their pants.