No Fantasy - ES Scalping Reality

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by jeb9999, Jun 4, 2009.

  1. Profitably scalping the ES is not easy. Don Miller is a professional ES trader, an IOM memeber (leases a seat) and an end of day trading blogger.

    In one of his blog posts Don has year end trading statistics for year end 2008.

    He had a net profit of $1,635,103 trading 586,184 sides (293,092 RTs). The net profit per RT is only $5.58 or less than one half an ES tick per RT.

    There is another thread here at ET about making a point on each ES contract RT every day. In order to make a point an ES RT on a sustained basis a trader needs to be 9 times more successful than Don Miller was in 2008. I doubt that the vast majority of traders here could even equal Don Miller's performance (relative to account size) on a sustained basis let alone do 9 times better.

    While making a point on each ES contract RT every day on a sustained basis may be a desirable goal, it is a highly improbable one for all but the most skilled trader.
  2. good post, but the logic is flawed.

    that kind of high velocity trading virtually guarantees a small per trade profit or loss, but a large NET result.

    someone trading less hectically could easily do better on a per trade basis.
  3. 2 ESM09 trades today, both profitable... (+$150 each for 10 min time).
    $4 buck RT is sure better the $14 buck PER SIDE for an option play.
  4. Don Miller is a liquidity provider. He says so himself. Without his low commissions, he wouldn't make squat.
  5. Just finishing up training a couple of retail traders.

    They each have an edge that works, and I have shown them how to monitor their results so that when that edge cycles out, they can fix it.

    They know how to manage risk

    They have sufficient capital to stay in long enough (on an intraday basis) for their edge to kick in.

    Neither is a scalper....Why...because that simply won't work for retail traders paying retail commissions....can't be done.

    They are looking for 10pts every time they pull the trigger and averaging about 4-5 so far. Two or three trade opportunities per day. They expect to show profits on a weekly basis at first (not daily).

    I would give them about a 80% chance of making it work long term.

    Please don't pm me. I did this as a favor, and for the record, training people isn't fun, its very difficult work and I am not interested in doing it again.

    Are either of these people going to make a million bucks this year? No, certainly not, but they could in the near future if they continue to keep their heads in the game.

    As far as I am concerned THIS is reality for retail traders who are serious about the business.
  6. I do not agree that the logic is flawed. I do agree that someone with a different short term trading style/strategy can do better on a per trade basis. The key factor is being able to sustain the performance of a trading style/strategy over long periods of time.

    293,092 RTs divided by the 253 days traded in 2008 is only 1158 RTs a day. 1158 RTs a day with mulitple lots per trade is not all that high velocity.

    Don Miller is a true scalper taking small losses and many scratches, thus the very low profit per trade. A successful short term trader (nonscalper) with a wider loss parameter and minimal scratches should do better on a per trade basis.
  7. Nice trading for today. Better than I did.

    Can you sustain that performance day after day for a year?
  8. You didn't even bother to read the detailed commission and expense information Don Miller provides at the link I posted. He would have made good money even as a retail trader.

    Net Profits for the year 2008 $1,635,103
    Cost savings of IOM membership $510,051
    Net Profits (if retail trader) $1,125,052

    Good example of why high volume traders should lease/buy an exchange membership.
  9. ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE!!! In his video he's absolutely dissapointed with his results from May... only $30K net profit!!! He mentioned that he's going to have to change some aspects of his trading, although he's still on pace to make more than $1M this year!!!

    I appreciate that kind of tenacity... he's completely driven to succeeed...

  10. I didn't realize I was in the presence of a true giant. Pardon me.

    So trading say a 10 lot 100 times is not high velocity.

    How about a 100 lot 10,000 times, would that meet your very high standard?


    #10     Jun 4, 2009