checking account balance - all time high; corporate cash - all time high; billionaires cash hoard - all time high; you name it.. dumb money is stashing cash and gold bars.... only central banks and corporations are buying. and money is super cheap.... what else do we need for a 10 year moon shot..
If you follow this guy Ciovacci capital, he has a very good YouTube video on how the demographic shifts point to another 10 year bull run.
Spoken like a clueless old timer who cant make it in the new world. While it is def harder than 20 or even 10 years ago it is certainly still viable. Very much so. There are still niches in the market where you can literally print money. Just because you couldn't adapt and improve your skills doesn't mean others didn't. Nothing wrong with that, BTW. Many are in the same boat with you. Atleast, you can recognize when it's time to pack it up and stop fighting losing battles.
All due respect to ya brutha for slinging the paper in the pits. I wish I would kept in better contact, and kept those contacts up from the old days. Used to know and talk with Scott Barrie a bit. As well as Les ... can't remember his name ... but he used to work at Ira Epstein, when they made the switch over to MANN. Ugh ... did that one end ugly. Sheesh. Mark Douglas, who ran an FCM as a principal out West. For the life of me, can't remember Les's last name, and that's driving me nuts. Unfortunately, I'm forgetting a lot of names from the old days as I age. I was a home office guy, but as you know back then, if you were working from home office ... we just talked to you all from our phone. Anyways ... I would agree with you in one aspect ... you can't scalp Equities. Can't be done from home, as an at home, mouse trader. With all the exchanges that are arbed via HFT, can't be done in equities. However, believe it or not mate, I still know a few scalpers in Futures, since that's all locked to a single exchange. The one I can tell you ... scalps ... is John Grady. He's out there in the ether putting out materials on it. Though even John will tell you ... it's a dance, and a skill that has to be developed. It's nothing that can ever be put to an "XYZ" method. But I do run with some folks, who actually intra-day trade. And honestly mate? They do the same thing you used to do on the Floor. Honestly ... how did all those guys? Tommy Baldwin, Rambo, Marty Schwartz, Charlie D, all the greats ... how did they do what they did? If it was outrights (though Charlie D flat out said ... he turned to spreading, since it lead to SURVIVING the fat tail events that seeks to kill every outrights trader) ... it was the same way every time. Guys would pick a couple of levels they liked, usually posted on the big Boards, from the previous open, high, low, close. Then, there is how Pivots started in the first place. The Floor. Thus, Floor Pivots. They'd keep those numbers in their head, and then if they weren't doing the aforementioned market making, and simply trading the bid and offer? They'd keep those levels in mind, and know how much they were willing to hold on during a particular trade, and then puke it if it ran too far against them. Hopefully make a few points if it ran in their way from their levels. Then skew the math in their way. Of course now, you observe with your eyes where each of your opponents has positioned himself .. and you don't have that advantage; and watching him squirm and sweat when he was being tested. But with levels / structures, and then implementation? Not really that different from floor trading, in it's overall architecture. The same thing can be done on the screen. In fact, I know guys, that just adapted that, to the screen. Some of them still run with guys that slung paper with ya on the floor from the old days. It's just risk-reward. That's all. Line up 40 trades off a big market structure. Risk 1 to make 2. Figure out how much leeway you want to give it, and adjust for volatility, in your sizing. All there really is to it. Of course, it's a bear to pull off in execution, simply because it's so psychologically draining. I understand if you can't make the screen transition. Lot of guys couldn't do it. But trust me mate ... I know guys who are slinging digital numbers all day long, and making a mint from it ...
I don't understand why "outrights" would be killed by fat tail events. OK let's say you trade options and you have a $50K position. The worst case is you lose $50K. And? If that kills you, then you sized incorrectly. I can understand stops being triggered at really unfavorable levels but even then, I have not yet understood how an "outright" trader gets dinged hard once, and then keeps coming back until they are dinged repeatedly to death. If you have a long enough track record, you should know what good looks like. When your recent track record stops looking good, then stop trading you dumb fucks
short term / intraday - 99% noise. but if you step back, look at daily/weekly - and put all the CIRCUMSTANCES together - the signals are very strong.... check my thread 'trading is easy'... not a lot of noise in there..
I recommend /NG day trade if you have to do day trading. It's not coincidence Ricky Gutierrez mostly day trades UGAZ or DGAZ. I see its price action is easier than others.
dozu888, I day trade, and yes the noise and false support and resistance can be very challenging. Everyday, I have to decipher between what is noise and what is price doing. Noise. Noise is everywhere and causes challenges in every industry, electrical, social media, politics. Noise is noise. Question for you: That being said, do you believe it's a trader primary responsibility to understand noise as well?