No day trader on this planet can make yearly profits

Discussion in 'Trading' started by teewoods, Nov 13, 2019.

  1. Real Money

    Real Money

    Scalping ES is for 2 or 3 ticks. Points is not a scalp. And yea, if you are actually any good at it then you are scalping stuff that guys who can't scalp will call noise.
     
    #151     Nov 17, 2019
  2. volpri

    volpri

    You can define scalping however you wish. My definition is that min scalp in the ES is 1 point. I won’t take a trade if I don’t think the probability is higher that it will give me at least 1 point. I realize that is not the orthodox definition but I don’t give sh$t.

    And price will not move 1 point unless an institution wants it too. There is no noise... there is only movement. Traders cling to the concept of noise when they cannot logically understand or explain what happened in a movement.
     
    #152     Nov 17, 2019
  3. Real Money

    Real Money

    I would just call anything not measured in ticks a day trade. That's just my opinion though. I'm not obsessed with how the word is used.
     
    #153     Nov 17, 2019
    volpri likes this.
  4. EsKiller

    EsKiller

    I don't know if any of you do this for a living, and actually make money but I want to make a comment.

    I regularly chat with a group of guys that also trade ES. Been doing so for years. All of them average down within certain market conditions.

    Reasoning: You can be correct about direction and wrong about timing of the pullback / mean reversion. Happens ALL the time.
    You know price should begin to turn around, but you were wrong. higher time frames and current PA all show a likely turn coming soon. Should you exit or average down ? I'm averaging down. Most people i know average down. It works if you know what you are doing.

    That being said I've also average down out of revenge many times in my career and it rarely ends well !

    Lets also talk about undercapitalization. ES just completes 5 waves and 2 legs of a 15 point swing. It starts to pullback. You look at 5 min chart and buy after a 5 point pullback. You have your 2 point stop in place, and get stopped out for -100. It drops 7.5 points now, and a 50% retracement. Generally, this is a good buy zone after a 5 wave move. You buy again. this time u make 2 points but you are still down .5 points + commish. Reasoning.....You can't stomach the idea of being down 4.5 points (-$225) so u have to buy twice. Traders do this ALL THE TIME. And you cant buy another contract b/c it could send your account down $500. In the meantime, if I was trading this and higher time frames support a higher move, I'd be long 2 contracts now. Exit the first contract for a small gain, and the second contract for a bigger move. Who wins out ?
     
    #154     Nov 18, 2019
    toon, SimpleMeLike and trader1974 like this.
  5. Real Money

    Real Money

    Not sure. But I will say this. If I think there will be a turn, say I'm bearish, I will buy NQ and sell 2 ES or multiples of this.

    That way, if the market continues a rally into what I think will be a top I am ready to take profits at that point on the NQ and then let the short ES work.

    This technique completely changed the way I look at price action.
     
    #155     Nov 18, 2019
  6. Real Money

    Real Money

    I don't think in terms of points. I always use the PREM. I built quant systems that track and measure the PREM so that I can front run the heavy algo's. The heavy algorithms are coming from the rate futures price action.

    When I average, I will wait as long as possible and then size up as much as I feel comfortable so that my average price is as close to the market as possible.
     
    #156     Nov 18, 2019
  7. trader1974

    trader1974

    Very smart
     
    #157     Nov 18, 2019
  8. Real Money

    Real Money

    Though I entirely agree with this, there is no difference. If you are short and the market is rallying, or long and the market is breaking then you are wrong.

    That's why I think it is almost always better to be long and short (with a bias) using any combination of NQ, YM, ES, or RTY.

    Most traders do something like this. (I also like this style after I make some good profits)

    Long, flat, short, flat, long, flat, short, long, flat, short, flat, short, flat, long..........

    I have my own style though, and my own proprietary edge. But, I favor cross hedging indexes and working average prices or holding spread positions and scalping on top of that.

    I've said this before but, the beauty of futures is leverage and liquidity. But, one of the real advantages that futures have over other types of trading is real-time risk based margin. (SPAN)

    Lastly, price action in the ultra bond rate futures is hugely predictive of the index direction.
     
    #158     Nov 18, 2019
    trader1974 likes this.
  9. trader1974

    trader1974

    It refers to combining the operation with options?
    (I'm sorry I don't understand it well, I don't speak English)
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2019
    #159     Nov 18, 2019
  10. Real Money

    Real Money

    No, this is something like

    Long NQ and short ES. Or long YM and short ES but then day trade NQ at the same time.
     
    #160     Nov 18, 2019
    trader1974 likes this.