No Brainer Breakouts or How An Early Bird Catches A Worm

If you underleverage your initial winner(s) and generate successful trades, and then experience a series of trades where the market consolidates and you experience a series of losers, your system fails.

What you are doing is creating a model based on gambling, which in and of itself is not a bad thing, but you just can't take it to the bank.

 

Did you vote?

You can take it to the bank & it won't fail. I have seen so much p/a that it is not a gamble to say that it is Holy Grail in trading

 

You notice how the "Lose" bar has been steadily increasing?

Yea, I voted.

 

I take it that your average number of whipsaws is much less than 50 then?

 

50? You will fail to find a chart that would whipsaw in a range 50 times

 

Hey I know!

If he adds a coin-flip along with his martingaling he might be on to something.

 

Of course I will. Mainly because I won't look. But your idea has merit.

 

Obviously you will win. Of that I am very sure.

 

TY! You see if I was to choose a range of say 500 ES points, then there would be little point in this exercise, but what is ES's ATR for the last 20 years? If you know a value of an average oscillation, then it becomes less of a coin toss to estimate range of next oscillation. Bring in timing factor it becomes even less of a coin toss.

 

You must be the third richest poster in ET. I'm very happy to have found you.

Let's not wake up any more fools. Please close the thread a.s.a.p.