No Brainer Breakouts or How An Early Bird Catches A Worm

Discussion in 'Journals' started by JSSPMK, Oct 30, 2009.

Will I win or will I lose by the end of November 2009?

Poll closed Nov 6, 2009.
  1. Win

    21 vote(s)
  2. Lose

    12 vote(s)
  1. If you underleverage your initial winner(s) and generate successful trades, and then experience a series of trades where the market consolidates and you experience a series of losers, your system fails.

    What you are doing is creating a model based on gambling, which in and of itself is not a bad thing, but you just can't take it to the bank.
    #11     Nov 2, 2009


    Did you vote?

    You can take it to the bank & it won't fail. I have seen so much p/a that it is not a gamble to say that it is Holy Grail in trading :)
    #12     Nov 2, 2009
  3. You notice how the "Lose" bar has been steadily increasing? :D

    Yea, I voted.
    #13     Nov 2, 2009
  4. I take it that your average number of whipsaws is much less than 50 then?
    #14     Nov 2, 2009


    50? You will fail to find a chart that would whipsaw in a range 50 times :)
    #15     Nov 2, 2009
  6. Hey I know!

    If he adds a coin-flip along with his martingaling he might be on to something.
    #16     Nov 2, 2009
  7. Of course I will. Mainly because I won't look. But your idea has merit.
    #17     Nov 2, 2009
  8. flatron


    Obviously you will win. Of that I am very sure.
    #18     Nov 2, 2009


    TY! You see if I was to choose a range of say 500 ES points, then there would be little point in this exercise, but what is ES's ATR for the last 20 years? If you know a value of an average oscillation, then it becomes less of a coin toss to estimate range of next oscillation. Bring in timing factor it becomes even less of a coin toss.
    #19     Nov 2, 2009
  10. You must be the third richest poster in ET. I'm very happy to have found you.

    Let's not wake up any more fools. Please close the thread a.s.a.p.
    #20     Nov 2, 2009