No Black Monday Posts? What does that say about sentiment?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by trader151, Aug 4, 2007.

  1. Everyone is talking about an ease, there is no sense of panic around here, first time in a while on a decent size down Friday.

    Total complacenty.

    Just an observation.

    Any thoughts?
  2. tortoise


    Complacency is the rational response to current circumstance, where Fed, PPT, etc., will intervene to protect the status quo.
    The only real threat will come from the unexpected, which is, by definition, unpredictable.

    It will take some unseen, undefined "X" factor to overwhelm all efforts of the stabilizers, one of sufficient consequence to force a shift in circumstance and, consequently, force a shift in perspective from complacency to panic. Until then, in complacency lies the path of least resistance -- and, therefore, profitability.
  3. I'll predict a 50% chance of a nice bounce on monday. If it does not bounce then it will go lower.
  4. It could always close unchanged, you know.
    That might even be a good prediction. You got one bunch looking for lower, mostly lots lower, another bunch thinking big time bounce. So, why not just close flat or as close to it as possible, if you're Mr. Market and you want to frustrate the lot of 'em?
  5. MKTrader


    There's plenty of negative sentiment here and elsewhere. However, the "Black Monday" forecasters have been wrong so many times I think they finally headed to the hills.
  6. Honestly, I think it will bounce because of the oversold conditions. However, I didn't buy on friday. I wanted to load up end of day but I held back because I lost enough from the past two weeks.

    damn, i had a premature celebration when dow hit 14K. shit, i had a 10k week. oh well, i knew that shit was too good to last.
  7. It is like watching a slow train you realize nearly 1/2 of all stocks hit a new low last week?

  8. MKTrader


    That's actually a quantifiably good indicator of a least a temporary one. This is especially true if it's combined with relatively high VIX ad Put-Call ratios, which we have.

  9. Crash City cometh...
    Maybe a 5% down day...

    But that might be it...for now...
  10. The trend is down. There is absolutely nothing out there that suggests otherwise.

    Until the market stops making lower lows and produces evidence of something like a double bottoms followed by higher lows and starts making higher highs, until we see that, heavy downside is a strong possibility in the near future.

    Of course the feds speak this week so I'm sure we'll get some sense of direction continuation quite soon.

    #10     Aug 5, 2007