This index is now at a support level around 11,000, having pulled back 1200 points in 6 days, and significantly below the lower bollinger band. The long-term uptrend is still intact, so I think now is a good time to acquire some long poisitions. I'm buying some right now, and would look to add some more tomorrow if there is further weakness. Initial target would be 11,500-600. A close below 10,750 would signal I was wrong about this being a bottom, but even then I think it will be a racing certainty to exit around 11,000-200 over the next week or so. In other words, either this is the bottom today or tomorrow, or it trades a bit lower, then comes back to breakeven or slightly profitable. Heads you win, tails you breakeven.
Yes, especially now it has just taken out stops below 11,000. I'm scaling into some more, and will look to have a complete position on by tomorrow's close. Tomorrow might be a big down open if the ES is down a lot on Monday, but I think that will be the low, at least for now. In fact, it may be a good trade to do a spread, long Nikkei short ES. For the Nikkei to go down much further would IMO require the ES to blow through support and have a big fall. Whereas if the ES holds, the Nikkei should have a big snapback rally.
The risk is too great to fade the downmove. I would wait until the market stabilized a bit. Preferably u wanna see a choppy contracted range before entering long.. or some type of a reversal day. IMHO i will be looking to go long to play the bounce when the S&P gets near the 200ma.. 1070 area.. assuming we chop around there or have a strong reversal off that level. Although I think u are right that the market is oversold and is due for a bounce.. your timing might be a bit too early.. so if u are scaling be patient.
-590.. god damn. Big balls to go long right here.. markets could blow support and crash. This is all coming from spill over from fixed income. --MIKE
Just closed at 10820 on the futures, down 660. I didn't think it would close down that low, and any time the market surprises you adversely, it is a good idea to be more cautious than normal and concentrate on defence. So I won't be adding any more to my current position, and tomorrow I will set a stop on half my position at 10750 or 50 points below the 10 minute opening range, whichever is lower. The rest I will exit if the market does not bounce within the next couple of days. That way if I turn out to be too early, I can at least limit my losses and avoiding taking too much of a hit.
I think the setup is still valid, big downday on Friday with huge followthrough on Monday, bounce should be in the coming days.