nikkei poll

Discussion in 'Trading' started by man, Apr 16, 2003.

  1. man

    man

    will the nikkei see 6500 this year? I guess so.
     
  2. Possible. I can't wait for japanese version of Motley Fool (www.fool.com), read about the benefits of long-term investing...
     
  3. kenokabe

    kenokabe Guest

    Do they still show the article for the benefit of Index Funds? So fool...
     
  4. Nikkei looks outright nighmarish. Mass hari kiri. I still voted no, think we bottom above 7000, unless Japan finally unleashes a severe Yen devaluation - you know, the monster deval they should have done a decade ago.

    N. Korea situation or a SARS migration to Tokyo could tank the Nikkei again in a hurry ...
     
  5. kenokabe

    kenokabe Guest

    Well, just let you know.
    I live in Japan, and there is not a single carrer of SARS for now, and people here are not scared at all. People even don't talk about that much in daily life.
    Probably, seeing the situation from the US or Europe, HongKong and Japan looks so close and are considered kind of a same area.
    The fact is the number of the airplane passengers to/from HongKong is not so different to from/to the US, I suppose.
    I am not saying Japan is free from the danger of SARS, but saying the risk is the same as the US.
    To me, it is one of the misunderstanding seeing some other countries from abroad.
     
  6. I live in Taipei so fully aware Japan still untouched (as far as anyone knows) - but still nervous for the region. That people in Japan are not conerned can only increase the risk as they fail to increase vigilance. You said: "the number of the airplane passengers to/from HongKong is not so different to from/to the US, I suppose." Yes, but it can also be flown in from HK, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia,??? Care to venture a guess how many people in Indonesia have already contracted SARS? Guaranteed diagnosis and prevention will be nonexistent in that country - people will just get sick and many will die. A big problem in my view is that this is in many ways a standard bug and in a mild case can be difficult to diagnose. I read that some carriers may not actually get sick or show any symptoms. This bug is racing through all of China as we speak and cannot help but think the writing is on the wall for Taiwan. And Tokyo is so crowded, like HK, that once arrived the bug could spread quickly. IMO.
     
  7. kenokabe

    kenokabe Guest

    Yes, the people are not concerened in daily life, but know the risk to travel to HK, so very few people fly there now. Foreign administraion recommends not to go HK, and the people aware that.
    I ignorerd the network from another asian countries because the official number of known carrer in those countries are very small, and their flights are going to the western world, too.
    In terms of the congestion, Tokyo is not a special place in the world, so is NY or London.
    Look, Japan is geographically separated from China. Maybe some guys don't aware this.
    Well, here, I am not advocating the situation for SARS in Japan, but I simply feel the risk is not so much different from the other world, especially finding some guy is tryig to include the special risk in the fundamental information of Nikkei. Peace.
     
  8. I've been shorting every bounce in the Hang Seng since the SARS news broke :D
     
  9. man

    man

    I am actually even more bearish on the yen than on the nikkei. they might be able to further freeze the equities, but they will fail on the currency. their rise in budget deficit is not for free.

    but, to be honest, I do not see any reason why the yen trades at current levels, yet he has obviously estasblished a stable trading range to the dollar.


    peace
     
  10. If the Yen breaks down big time, say to 200=250JPY/USD, what impact on the Nikkei? I'm sure there are precedents in ... Thailand, S. America, just not up on global economics. Any thoughts?

    Without doing any research, my guess is that the Nikkei must follow the currency down initially but afterward domestic production costs decline, exports rise, thus profits and Nikkei rise? Also, inflation returns which is good for asset values and earnings improvement?

    Have to agree on the bear yen. Should have been devalued years ago back when the world's largest economy could weather a deval of the currency of #2 economy. Now both economies are in the toilet. Still recall the Reagan/Bush administrations harrassing the Japanese to open up trade barriers and undertake structural reform - apparently nobody was listening ...

    It seems now Japanese are attempting to address structural problems in earnest - Thursday WSJ had some good related articles. Debate seems to be centered on whether it is too little too late.

    Interested in further reasoned opinions on Yen/Nikkei ...
     
    #10     Apr 18, 2003