Nikkei Peaked @ 39,000 20 Years Ago and Is @ 7,000 Now

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by ByLoSellHi, Mar 6, 2009.

  1. What lessons are to be learned from the fact that there are 35 and 45 year old Japanese who invested a substantial sum of their life/retirement savings in the Nikkei, the Nikkei peaked at 39,000 in 1989, and it now sits at 7,000 20 years later, when they're at or near retirement?

    Is it not possible that the Japanese syndrome can't be repeated here?
  2. I think we're going down to 6000, and if not we're going up to 7000.

    How's that?


  3. Yea but odds are giving by their high savings rate that for the next 20 years of their career, after being stung, they were putting it into government bonds. Those have done just fine.
  4. Just an FYI; I'm not predicting.

    I do think it's of some value, and maybe a lot, to at least consider the equity market in Japan that's declined for 20 years now, wiping out a generation of Japanese investors and retirees.

    From 6600 to 6600 in 12 years here is one thing, and some hrtr say 'it has to get better; stocks must be cheap; invest now.'

    But are those logical fallacies?

    The Nikkei has been cut down by 83% over 20 years; water torture.
  5. Well, Zeal called a bottom today, FWIW.
  6. In 20 years, you'll still be POSTING and not TRADING.
  7. How do we know Japanese savers and retirees were heavily exposed to the Nikkei or real estate in 1990?

    The exposure to stock markets of American households has risen from the 50s to the 2000s, not sure at all about the Japanese.

  8. Wiping out a generation of Japanese investors and retirees ? LOL ! I read last year aboout Japanese housewives and retirees being very active in Forex markets - although not very successfull.

  9. Reuters article 2 years ago about Japanese retirees investment philosophy. Old story, but it shouldn´t be different today :
  10. BuyLo,

    the Nikkei is not reflecting the Jap stock market correctly (long term) due to calculation and re-/composition issues.

    Please review the TOPIX (TPX) instead,
    however, this index still fell from 2100 to 720.

    Furthermore, the 1987/1989 peak in Japan is distorted by money supply issues that were existing that time.
    #10     Mar 7, 2009