I'm also bullish in the long-term. IMO the risk of permanent capital loss from these levels is practically zero, the worst case is a move to say 10,000 giving a 20% quotational loss, but then it is most likely to bottom there and recover, pursuing the same upmove to the same old highs, just from a lower level. So, as long as you can sit on your hands and ideally buy more during a 20% move down, it's a fantastic long-term buying opportunity.
How does the average balance sheet of Japanese blue chips look like in 2008? Did they improve as much from 2000 to now as their US and European counterparts did?
I'm not trying to predict anything here, despite having lived in Japan and showing a little knowledge for the Japanese economy. I do not think your risk is endlessly great. But you could be discouraged with your investment in the near future and are initiating an unnecessary exposure. An unstable economic situation does affect their growth potential just as well because they rely on exports. Yet, we have no signs that they are experiencing a turnaround in the economy since the real estate crisis began in the mid 90's. Wait for a signal from the central bank (e.g. their raising rates).
Just reading Taleb for the second time. The risk in buying a dip is that it might not be a dip. Personally I think its too early for the big recession ... but exact timing has never been my strength so I just follow the trend. Now, remind me, what does the trend on NK look like?
i wouldn't bet against a good trader yet for how slim the chances, you may have to keep avg in what seems like an eternity just to make it worth it. if not already famiiar with sgxnk options just look 'em up: are a viable alternative to stocks and futs and can trade at a very good discount when vega drops and at a juicy premo when vega rises, becoming a much attractive vehicle. all da best
Just wanted to bump this thread and get an update from you guys that were bullish on japanese equities a year ago today. Are you bullish still, accumulating? If so what specifically do you like right now?