Nikkei down 30% in 7 months...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Longhorns, Feb 6, 2008.

  1. If this were a U.S. exchange, I think a 30% drop would get all the "long term" traders fired up to buy on the cheap.

    I am buying because....

    1) I have zero exposure to the Japanese markets and I wanted to diversify a little.

    2) I think alot of the emerging market money will go into Japan as a "relative" safe haven compared to the other Asian markets.

    3) I don't think Japanese banks have much exposure to the sub prime mess like many other countries have.

    I bought my first block of DXJLX (Direxion Japan Bull 2x) around 11.50 (Currently 10.65 after the last two horrendous days). Looking to add on further weakness.

    Anyone else dipping in with a longer term perspective?
  2. H*Pi


    I own a large position in the EWJ that I bought at the close.
  3. i don't pretend to know much about japanese culture, but i think sometimes about how strongly they experience shame...

    in america you have something like the tech bubble, but the risk taking spirit prevails: americans just pick up the pieces and try again - hence you have a 2 year bear market

    in japan you have the samauri suicide mentality...some mistakes are just too shameful to be forgiven...and you have a 18 year bear market....

    i can't help but wonder if a whole generation is jaded by the asset bubble in the is going to take a long time to work those memories out of the system.
  4. Nice.

    Hope it works out for you. :)
  5. DXJLX looks good. Would love to see the Nikkei come down less than the DOW though. Think its around 12,900 now. Haven't seen it at that level in a long time.

    I prefer FXI and FXP though...Probably a Summer olympic rally in a couple months in Beijing for a 3-6 month bounce play.

    Jeez, I remember the Nikkei at 35k almost 20 years ago. Talk about bubbles.....
  6. Nassim Taleb says japanese culture does not handle failure or randomness well at all.
  7. Have you seen a chart of the US stock market priced in hard currency? Euros or Gold?

    Its just like the Japanese stock market chart and will still be in the doldrums 18 years after the 2000 high.
  8. zdreg


    what are the consequences?
  9. Colombo


    I agree with your outlook completely. I think you are a tad early though. I will wait for levels between 11,000 - 12,000. MTU is an excellent way to play Japan also.
    Cheers and good luck.
  10. seppuku:p
    #10     Feb 7, 2008