The odds are not that dim if you understand the dailyspec site. The Spec site is put together by a group that has been communicating and exchanging ideas for years and years on a daily basis, often many times a day. When people communicate frequently within an "in group", they often pick up and begin to use similar words and speech patterns. If you start to read the site regularly you will likely find this is one of the first things you notice. As Mr. Niederhoffer is the hub for many of these relationships and has even helped to educate a good number of the participants on the methods they use to make a living, it is even less surprising that after years of submersion in this "in group" similar speech patterns and vocabulary emerge. In Thoreau's case it seems he might have worked with Mr. Niederhoffer at some point (or currently does?) so in his case the similarity is even less surprising. If you have ever been on a tight knit sports team or similar you will find the same thing often happens. Thoreau has made some good posts. In particular he drew some good insight from the guy who was doubling down fighting the trend a while back. T There are some great, great traders who post here mixed in with all the "entertainment" it is important to keep an open mind.
I have an acquainted that usually he tells me and rubs in my face that he can get 100% in a month and that he has done that, and that he doeesn't want my 20-25% steady returns since he can do better than me... My reply is, what worth is making 100 or 2000% if after it somewhere down the road you make -100% ? He keeps making huge returns at times (I've seen him multiplying his acount 30 fold in a short period... but he has gone bust 4 times). So what you preach of 2000% is of no value to what good is making 200% or whatever if then you blow up? Yeah big deal ...
To paraphrase it in the style of the everlasting George W.: My mind is like a parachute, it is only open for a short period of time and useful only when I am falling. Or something like that.... I don't know about you, but generally people don't want their friends blabbing about their performances unless they don't mind to share it anyway. I don't think it has been shared on the dailyspec site. So it is safe to say that Thoreau has Victor's knowledge and permission to share such data. To keep my parachute working, let's just treat Thoreau as Victor's unofficial spokesman. Now if you don't mind, I have to go and make a jump....
If it is a fundamental idea I like to do this exercise: I look at past 5 years of SEC filings and track cash flow through the financial statements from quarter to quarter and year to year. Because cash is the blood it can help tie all the moving parts together into a mental picture. I then try to match this with what the "manager summary" is saying and look for congruence/incongruence. If the financial statements are very complicated or I see allot of capital markets activity (Issuing shares) I usually give the idea a pass. In a few cases I might look to take a small flier because I think the person suggesting the idea is high quality and I have been impressed with their ideas in the past. I am less keen on assessing trading or macro ideas as I have found that reading the fluctuations is what works for me, I prefer not to seek input that might disrupt my trading rhythm.
Dear Visaria, With all due respect, are you under the influence of a mind altering substance? Nassim never said Victor lacks method. Link please?
Dear EPrado, The Matador Fund did not go down 100%. Please get your facts straight. Multitudes of investors still ended with a net credit after their investments at Matador depending on their involvement and duration. And the last painful performance in the last difficult period were indeed the result of collusion by certain market participants. A lawsuit ensued, and was won in court. You are still missing the point. My involvement here on this website is to share my knowledge as I am mostly retired from active management of funds. I am merely hoping to spread my own knowledge in order that people can learn and employ a better methodology to trading. It is my way of "giving back". I urge you to visit www.dailyspeculations.com and educate yourself. Victor writes almost every day and loves to share his wisdom. If you cannot understand this, then I feel nothing but pity for you... and your parents.
No, but i certainty believe you may be. "While Niederhoffer had a publicized hiccup, some of his trainees fared well because they added rigor and methodology to their statistical inference. In other words, Niederhoffer's empiricism missed just a modicum of methodology." page 101, Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2001 Hardback edition (available from Amazon and all good bookshops, I suggest you buy a copy)
matador = -70 or 75% (or around there). to me that counts as second blowup. there is a high probability that 2008 / 2009 would have resulted in another blowup or two if matador had not already been impoded. and citation for where the case was won, please? i saw it was sealed: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10247380/4/embattled-refco-dusts-off-the-white-flag.html and it is not in the law records as a completed case, so thestreet.com is likely correct. discussing a sealed case is a definite no-no. money and risk management. the most important skill a trader can learn. EDIT: this thread is also worth a read, where baron was told by v.n. that "Matador is very much viable. Has much cash and positions in excess of all requirements. And has no need to liquidate positions" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=102468