you are so out of your league its not even funny. You better reread Covel's book-- in which i am name checked-- to brush up on your trend trading knowledge. LMFAO!!
Surf, how has Niederhoffer been doing in the last few years? Is he running money again? Do you know what his returns are? Just curious, not trolling.
Hi, He is happily trading his own account and enjoying life. No idea as to performance, but he talks about his trading on his twitter feed. surf
You realize that the risk profile of counter-trend trading and short puts is 100% identical? Both are short volatility and benefit from declining vol. Both get hurt if vol extends much farther than anticipated. There is absolutely nothing more risky in a short put strategy vs. buying dips in the underlying.
Ok, here is a question to all the critics.. Why is it that Victor has taught more great 7,8,9, even 10 figure traders than almost anyone? Why is it that to this day he is one of the greatest futures traders in history? Why did a top hedge fund trader tell me, "He is the greatest non-automated futures trader alive?" All the critics can't explain this fact, they just look at 2 events in a very long career. He is an old man who has been trading for most of his life. I suggest that the critics learn some (dare I say it?) respect.
The problem is that you are defining "trend" with hindsight - how what just happened impacted your account. To be useful you need to compute an expected value for the future, not look at the past. That is the issue.
Trading is a lot like boxing. You're just as good as your last fight (or monthly return). Niederhoffer - in boxing terms - was knocked out like an amateur TWICE by absolute journeymen. That certainly is career damaging. Nobody cares with Niederhoffer was a great teacher. You don't win prices for that in capitalism.