Niederhoffer thinks "follow the trend" sucks

Discussion in 'Trading' started by GloriaBrown, Jun 18, 2015.

  1. So what, then, was the point of your prior post? You could say that about anything and everything.

    (Although, to be workable, I think you need to home in on some specificity. One or more general principles don't get you far without a few nuts and bolts.)
     
    #21     Jun 18, 2015
  2. qxr1011

    qxr1011

    I explained the point

    here you starting the discussion about me... i do not want this discussion

    sorry
     
    #22     Jun 18, 2015
  3. No, in fact, you didn't.
    That I understand.
     
    #23     Jun 18, 2015
  4. What no one ever mentions is the fact that VN is intensely competitive-- the first time he invited me to his home, he was playing tennis with guys half his age and I was watched as he crushed his opponents. In between the games, he would run into the tennis shack on his court that has its own Bloomberg to check the market.
    He took this same spirit to the financial markets.

    Being ranked the number one performing hedge fund manager on earth for a number of years and trying to maintain this ranking demands outsized risks. You are up against the smartest people in the world who are all risk takers by default. Therefore to win, you need to push things harder and further. Hence, the drawdowns. However, VN remains a wealthy man and is presently succesfully trading his own capital.

    he is a true american hero who should be respected rather than vilified as he often is among the ignorant.

    surf
     
    #24     Jun 18, 2015
  5. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    When I first studied trading many years ago, one of the first things I learned was The 4 Cardinal Principles of Trading :

    1 Trade with the Trend (aka Follow the Trend).

    2 Cut losses short.

    3 Let winnings run.

    4 Manage Risk (aka money management).

    Somewhere along the way VN violated one or more of these basic principles and he blames it all on trend following. Silly man.

    Or maybe he just can't find the trend. While there's nothing wrong with the principle "Trade with the Trend", there's also no denying the multitude of sucky trend strategies like MA crossovers. Maybe VN confuses strategy with principle.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2015
    #25     Jun 18, 2015
    Frederick Foresight likes this.
  6. MrN

    MrN

    Yes, it is. Your are fortunate if you have never reached the point of realizing this.
     
    #26     Jun 18, 2015
  7. kut2k2, I think if we had to narrow it down, it would probably be in the area of loss cutting and money management. If VN went against a trend, we could surmise that he was anticipating a reversal of that trend and got his timing wrong. Or, perhaps he viewed the trend that was going against him as a temporary countertrend to the one he was trading. Or any other such reasonable explanation. And with proper stop and money management, he could have made a number of such ill-timed or ill-directed trades and still have enough capital to recalibrate once he saw the writing on the wall. But allowing one or a few trades to succumb into drama territory can lead to anyone's undoing.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2015
    #27     Jun 18, 2015
    kut2k2 likes this.
  8. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    :D
     
    #28     Jun 18, 2015
  9. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    The trader who makes it and keeps it is a great trader.

    The trader who makes it and loses it and makes it and loses it etc is merely an addict.
     
    #29     Jun 18, 2015
    kut2k2 likes this.
  10. I suppose we all have our own heroes. Heck, I keep rereading Reminiscences, and we all know that Livermore had a number of "setbacks." The man was a genius, but a flawed one. During each reread, I try to learn from both his wisdom and his mistakes.

    I think surf's problem is that he latches onto people who give him access, and they then do his thinking for him. Surf often touches on subject matter that appears to be beyond him, like an ill-fitting suit. The crux of the matter is that if you trade your own account, then you need to do your own thinking. And that's where his results bear that out.

    Surf, before you press the "Report" button, please understand that I don't mean any disrespect here. What I present is what I think is constructive criticism. You are of the view that people who do well in the markets must wear their hat in a certain way and no other. But that is not the case. We each must play to our own strengths and find our place in the market ecosystem, if, in fact, there is a place for us. Anything else is folly.

    If you find this post offensive, then by all means complain to the moderator and do so with my blessing. Its deletion will do me no harm.
     
    #30     Jun 18, 2015