Niederhoffer thinks "follow the trend" sucks

Discussion in 'Trading' started by GloriaBrown, Jun 18, 2015.

  1. This is just a chart like there are millions. Doesn't proof anything at all.
    This is nothing but old wives tales and platitudes.
     
    #171     Jun 23, 2015
  2. You call this a test? In what? Stupidity?
    And for this you need math wizards and PHD's? To make these very complex calculations?

    LOL
     
    #172     Jun 23, 2015
    romik likes this.
  3. All these discussions about the meaning of words is useless. This chart shows what matters. Buy at the bottom and sell at the top. That's the ultimate aim, but very difficult, if not impossible to do. So try to approach it at max.

    What is trend? Very clear and easy:
    1. Between every buy and sell the trend is long.And the countertrend is the opposite direction.
    2. Between every sell and buy the trend is short.And the countertrend is the opposite direction.
    So the game is to define the trend as quick as possible to take max of the move, and if possible with 100% accuracy.

    Can you explain me how the countertrend is always more profitable than the trend, based on my chart? Countertrend can NEVER make returns like trendfollowing. At least according to my definition of trend.

    xxx.jpg
     
    #173     Jun 23, 2015
  4. monoid

    monoid

    @Butterball: What are you talking about? :) 'Confusion' (about concepts in Math, Stats, Logic, and Finance) and surf? But .... But his wife has a PhD in Finance, and he is surrounded by Math and Stats PhDs. So, he too is an 'expert' in those subjects. Just like I am an expert in the anatomy of Brain and Spine 'cos my brother is a Neurosurgeon!

    How dare you tell him he is confused! :)

    @marketsurfer: Thanks again for engaging in conversations and providing amusement!
     
    #174     Jun 23, 2015
  5. Last edited: Jun 23, 2015
    #175     Jun 23, 2015
  6. Why would anyone want to fight the trend, my definition of the trend is where the big money is flowing. We are all small fish. In addition to following the trend, I find a reversion strategy very helpful for risk and reward.
     
    #176     Jun 23, 2015
  7. Wow, that is some ugly price action. Whichever market that is, I'd look for a different time frame. or Market. :)
     
    #177     Jun 23, 2015
  8. ES mini daily chart.
     
    #178     Jun 23, 2015
  9. Okay, thanks. I don't touch the stuff.
     
    #179     Jun 23, 2015
  10. Like Confucius said already centuries ago:When it is obvious that the goals cannot be reached, don't adjust the goals, adjust the action steps.

    At least it is clear what I mean with trend. :cool:
     
    #180     Jun 23, 2015