Friends, I assure you that I am not "surfer" or any other banned user in the past. I believe that the moderator perhaps was given incorrect information. I spoke just now on the telephone to Elite Trader, and a very kind gentleman reactivated my account after acertaining that I am not indeed guilty of being any past "banned identities". Again, I am not a previously banned user. That said, I must reiterate the robust trading results of Victor Niederhoffer, and how we all could become superior traders on his level if we seek to emulate his style. This is why I wrote so passionately on this subject. His trading is perfectly sound and logical. Again, he cannot be blamed for his "blow-outs" as some will call them. They were entirely due to member banks nervously withdrawing credit lines on during his drawdown periods and the aforementioned black swan events. If the banks had remained faithful to their obligations and extended proper credit, his funds would never have collapsed, and he would still be on the front pages of all the finance newspapers around the world.
Yes, the poor dear is a blameless victim as a result of all hands but his own. Since no one can, by definition, foresee "black swan" events, it only follows that one should leverage to the hilt and then average down in earnest when the need arises. Only then can one fulfill his true potential. Accelerators are made for stomping. Only the meek wear helmets.
Whereas they are usually so considerate to their competitors at all other times. The audacity of smelling weakness and then exploiting it. And in the financial markets, at that! Outrageous.
My friends, now that we have unequivocally determined that I am not some previously banned client, nor Victor himself, nor "marketsurfer", we can commence the pursuit of what make elitetrader.com one of the most valuable sites assisting traders become better. Sharing information... I ask in humble earnest that you purchase or read the bestseller "Education of a Speculator" and subscribe also to www.dailyspeculations.com. And please keep an open mind and judge for yourself. We believe that perhaps the most important part of the scientific method is asking the right questions â rich questions that if properly validated or refuted give information of a fruitful nature. A metaphor for planning for any event is framed by reading the "Wealth of Nations" by Adam Smith. And Victor has done all the relevant research. Again, Victor is a friend. I am not defending him nor am I endeavoring to force his methodology down anyone's throat. I am merely trying to be a benevolent, kindred spirit that believes Victor's trading style, if examined, will elevate your own trading to a new more profitable level. Victor... deep down, is a very loving, and humble man. And he strives to learn something new every day.
That might be VN mistake, the 'irrational' market price might not be so irrational when you take into account that you run that risk of liquidity/solvency problems when trying to take advantage of it
Such as, Why can't you stay banned? Thus far, you have referred to "his" web site 3 times in this thread. Fascinating.
Gabfly1, I sincerely believe that your bitter animosity towards Victor is misguided and misplaced. I feel that you too inside are a friend and a gentle spirit. If you seek to find truth in Victor's wisdom, you can only benefit in your walk throughout this life. You may learn to love Victor as I have. I offer my own blessings that you will witness the enormous contribution that Victor has given to the Hedge Fund world. I believe that I have tried with all that is me to help others become more robust and profitable traders. If you visit Victor's website, you will witness the oceans of dear friends Victor has that subscribe to his wizard like skill set and keen observation of the natural world.
tim, thanks for your question. I believe that Victor did exercise all proper risk metrics after the cabal collectively and deliberately withheld precious monies that were promised. In 1997, had even one trading day been permitted the more, there would not have been any blowup. Also, the losses in 2001 to 9/11 and in 2003, 2006 were managed well. In 2007, the year of the second "blowup", there was just no way to predict the irrational disjointed prices in the autumn. As you will recall, that was the end of the bull and the start of the financial meltdown. I will include the "blowup" of Victor's funds in 2007 as part of the financial meltdown that took prices to the lows of SP 500 666 in March of 2009. That was a once in a century event. Nassim asserted his book, "What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives." Nassim and I agreed that the events of 2007-2009 removed the top feeders like Bear, Lehman, Merrill, AIG, and other financial titans. It is unfair to assume that Victor could have done anything differently, as he did not have access to the Fed window. So Tim, I have addressed the two reasons behind Victor's publicized "blowups". If a careful scrutiny is asserted, the evidence of culpability points away from Victor and to events that he could not control or foresee. We could study various examples in the world of sports to also arrive at vindication.