Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ARogueTrader, Jan 11, 2004.
That's a little more bearish than mine. I had help from the analyzer on this.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=11925&u=mrwsm&a=MRWSM TA Charts&id=242
A simpler (and equally probable) count has the impulse wave begin at the Oct. 02 low, with Wave 2 correcting from the Dec. 02 high to the Feb 03 low, and Wave 3 now under way with possible tops at 1516 (normal Wave 3 proportion) or 1734 (if Wave 3 extends. Since we're well past 1516 the Wave 3 extension to 1734 looks more likely.
Should have written 1739 as forecast high for an extended Wave 3 in the NDX. From there the alternation rule would mandate a complex correction to 1435 (38%), or as low as 1339 (62%).
Seems to me the lower order counts are subject to endless variations.
As being in a Wave 2 retracement, that he even admits has been much "stronger" than he previously thought. Looking back to 1936-37 and other Wave 2's, he says that many can retrace as much as .786%
I'm not sure what the calculation is for .786%, but the .618% retracement gets you to 1253 in the S&P.
Hmm! confluence. An extended Wave 3 in the first impulse leg of a Wave 2 retracement gets us to 1254 in the S&P. And the 61.8% retracement of Wave 2 also goes to 1253. 154 higher from Friday's high we'll find the answer.
The 78.6% retracement of Wave 1 down in the S&P would approach 1385.
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