Nice DAX downtrend

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DT-waw, Jan 29, 2003.

  1. Look at DAX last 2 weeks... down ~ 17%
    Aaron, since your fund trades DAX futures, I think you're doing very well in January 2003!
  2. Aaron


    Nice chart. Yes, we've been making money in the Dax.

    It seems lots of things have been having long trends: stocks (down), euro/dollar (up), and gold (up). It should be a good month for the diversified, long term trend followers. Even though Schindler Trading isn't in this category, a lot of CTA's are and good returns for managed futures in general brings interest to this asset class.
  3. Babak


    I believe it broke the Oct 2002 low, did it not?

    Check out Amsterdam, Swiss, Cac, etc. They are all much closer or touching the October 2002 lows (relative to US indices).

    Interesing huh? :eek:
  4. Aaron


    Yeah, I'm surprised the European equities are underperforming the US. The Iraq situation is what is weighing on the markets and if France and Germany are going to sit this one out, then the US will be paying for the war and the primary terrorist target.

    It makes sense that the dollar is sagging, but not the European stock indices.
  5. European economies are over-regulated, over-taxed: that's the reason why eur. equities underperform U.S. EUR rally vs USD is a result of large differences in interests rates between both sides of the Atlantic.
  6. man


    a couple of comments:

    the dax is still slightly ahead of October low, which was 2519.
    IMO the weakness of European equities is driven by interest rates, which is a competitive disadvantage currently, plus german weakness, which is mostly still due to reunion cost, plus strong euro, which is worst thing that can happen for the already shaken, export driven german economy.

    In recent years germany was the driving engine in europe, economically as well as politically. Now they are doing horribly.

    Europe faces another load of cost with ten new members entering european community in 2004.

    UK already passed October lows.

    Current dollar weakness is the best that can happen to the US. Economically I think the US have a great position. With that weak dollar foreign deficit can become less an issue and the only thing that would make the dollar rise substantially, winning a war against Iraq, would help the economy. Guess who will bear the cost of that war plus some profits for the weapon industry?

    Funny thing is Japan. They are in this range at the twenty year low, but do not fall through, ignoring the rest of the world. Ignoring as well a painful strong yen.

  7. tmb


    it's been pointed out that the s&p 500 has even broken its october lows, when quoted in euros. does anyone know of a free web site that has charts of the u.s. market indices denominated in euros?
  8. Babak