Why do you care so freaking MUCH WHAT CNBC says??? Who gives a rat's ass what they think. They don't help anyone make money and they never will. What's even more amazing is that there are people out there such as yourself that continue to listen to them . . . Day after day after day. Absolutely amazing.
I agree it was an unusual and surprising close. Fear is widespread, volatility bid, all the classic signs of panic. The Nikkei was down almost 400 points yet the US holds firm all day then rallies strong in the last hour or so. Anyone who has traded for any length of time knows this is unusual activity. A strong market performance in the midst of widespread fear & loathing of stocks is typically a pretty bullish sign. A strong close in the last hour or two, when sentiment is negative, is very strongly associated with short-term reversals. Marc Faber was interviewed last week, and made the comment that the market either goes straight down, or bounces back quite sharply from oversold conditions and then fades away from there. Today's action is not consistent with the "straight down" theory. Therefore I conclude that the most likely result is a quick snapback rally. I reckon 1490 is a decent target, and quite possibly 1510-15. I'm therefore gonna get long, since Japan got a bit oversold on the recent government news, and I'm v bullish on that market long-term, I'm gonna buy in the Asia session rather than wait for the US open tomorrow. Another supporting factor is that the correction has taken out around 60% of the rally from the March lows. It's extremely common for short-term corrections to base and bounce from this kind of level. Now we have upward short-term momentum too, the dowside risk is both quantifiable and limited. If I'm wrong, no big deal in taking a 1-2% loss cash on the S&P/Nikkei. Since we're in a slightly shaky phase, I'll want confirmation of the long trade pretty quick - if the next 2 days show signs of weakness then I am out of there. Violation of the recent low is a clear stop-loss point, but to be honest I will get out of half my position if tomorrow's S&P is down more than about 0.5% on the close, and the rest if the low is violated or tomorrow is even weaker. P.S. Anyone who believes in the PPT is a f*cking retard. Even if you do believe in it, it's just a feature of the market - trade accordingly. IMO it's just an excuse for people to avoid taking responsibility for their own actions and results.
Maybe you need a refresher on the "Working Group on Financial Markets" aka PPT. http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12631.html Executive Order 12631--Working Group on Financial Markets Source: The provisions of Executive Order 12631 of Mar. 18, 1988, appear at 53 FR 9421, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 559, unless otherwise noted. By virtue of the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, and in order to establish a Working Group on Financial Markets, it is hereby ordered as follows: Section 1. Establishment. (a) There is hereby established a Working Group on Financial Markets (Working Group). The Working Group shall be composed of: (1) the Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee; (2) the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his designee; (3) the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his designee; and (4) the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or her designee. (b) The Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee, shall be the Chairman of the Working Group. Sec. 2. Purposes and Functions. (a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider: (1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and (2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations. (b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible. (c) The Working Group shall report to the President initially within 60 days (and periodically thereafter) on its progress and, if appropriate, its views on any recommended legislative changes. Sec. 3. Administration. (a) The heads of Executive departments, agencies, and independent instrumentalities shall, to the extent permitted by law, provide the Working Group such information as it may require for the purpose of carrying out this Order. (b) Members of the Working Group shall serve without additional compensation for their work on the Working Group. (c) To the extent permitted by law and subject to the availability of funds therefore, the Department of the Treasury shall provide the Working Group with such administrative and support services as may be necessary for the performance of its functions
and Paulson was proactive to identify the upcoming problem Greenspan created with his helicopter monetry policy. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/10/30/ccview30.xml The top brass will meet every six weeks, combining the heads of Treasury, Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and key exchanges. Mr Paulson has asked the team to examine "systemic risk posed by hedge funds and derivatives, and the government's ability to respond to a financial crisis". "We need to be vigilant and make sure we are thinking through all of the various risks and that we are being very careful here. Do we have enough liquidity in the system?" he said, fretting about the secrecy of the world's 8,000 unregulated hedge funds with $1.3trillion at their disposal
And your point is? Give me some evidence that this working group actively intervenes in markets, effecting major reversals in downward price trends purely by buying stocks. Until then, you are just another clueless moron spouting bullshit.
Cutton's smarter than you. Was the PPT buying last night when ES held the EXACT LEVEL as it did this afternoon? Were they buying the DAX and Euro Stoxx when those indices also rallied like a bat out of hell late today? Use your freakin' head. It the Gov was panicked they'd use a surprise rate cut as they did in Oct/98 and 1/01. Each propelled ES up 5% in one minute. The sellers down to the lows were longs puking. The sellers on the way up were shorts thinking "wow! I get to sell 51's after they were 42 just a minute ago. What a do!!!" The buyers? New money in individual issues helping fuel buy programs and short covering in futs off of obvious technical support.