NG Equities and Funds

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by oldtime, Jul 23, 2011.

  1. Man I've about googled myself to death. Almost everybody agrees NG is going to $7 someday, but it seems a better way to play it is through some kind of equity developement.

    My stock picker suggested SUG, but by the time I got around to it, it was in the news on a takeover bid. Maybe it's still a good buy or whoever takes it over is a good buy. What do I know?

    I'm looking at some funds but have no real interest in Exxon or Chevron or any oil stocks for that matter.

    Direxion funds look kind of interesting.

    Anybody got just an idea?
  2. I'm bullish on Crude, but I'm not bullish on oil stocks. I think as crude gets more expensive to produce the profit margins for the big oil companies will narrow. But I guess XON is becoming a big player in NG.

    At anyrate, I'd just as soon not have any exposure to oil companies. Would rather play it being long CL.

    But getting back to NG, there's plenty of it out there so I don't need exploration. What I need is somebody who can take all we already have and figure out a way to make some money off it.
  3. The tricky part is .... When is someday? Time=Money

    I got a buy signal for /NG on the 1 hour chart on Friday. We'll see how she rolls.
  4. Yeah, I was surprised to learn how critical weather is to NG short term.

    I guess if you're using 1 hr charts that's already factored in or insignificant.

    Bought a QC at 439 and tried to sell at 452 but never got filled.

    If some young guy knew what he was doing there's probably an opportunity to spread those QC's against NG. But man, you'd have to be quick.

    Time=Money, and I just aint got the time to fool around with it anymore.
  5. It could either go to 17 or 70.

    NG is a long term play,and it`ll play out,no doubt
  6. jo0477


    i don't know guys, looks pretty neutral through summer - although a weak USD always helps. I kinda like the SUG call but its had a big pop already (obviously) but I do like the "through the pipeline" plays. Maybe not as exciting as the futures but more stable. I've been holding spectra (SE) for awhile now, not too exciting but up 30%+ on the year + yielding just under 4% last time i checked. I also bought a bit of CHK at around 29 because I like their hedging. Personal preference there though. NG is a mutherfuker to time (IMHO) :D
  7. Yeah, didn't you tell me they were hedged up to $8 all the way out to 2020?

    Speaking of hedging, I heard someone on CNBC advising to avoid airlines because of high crude prices. Well heck, the CEO of Southwest has a big horsebarn down here and he said they were hedged at $70/barrel all the way out to 20 something.
  8. jo0477


    Hey oldtimer :D, sorry didn't look at the handle .... Saturday and I'm playing a pretty intense Hearts tourney (sad being married with kids :p)

    If they grabbed some WTI at the right time kudos to them (I think I would have hedged a % at the time too) I looked at putting on a 102/110 bull spread early in the week but chickened out, lol

    I did make a couple of bucks on the old 6E though, how you been doing?
  9. gtor514


    I'm interested in NatG only because I'm in a region of strong development. My understanding is the market is way to saturated with small drillers that are keeping supply high and prices low for the foreseeable future. So when I saw your post I was a little surprised as I've done my own research.

    The first article in a google search confirms this...

    I know there is a speculative pop in the market starting in Aug/Sept that runs till Dec but I can't believe we see $7. Maybe $5.50 to 6$ depending on the forecast for a cold winter.

    Can you provide an analysis that says $7 or more. Thanks.
  10. 7 or 8 in 3 to 5 years
    #10     Jul 24, 2011