NG Dumb Question 2: Steven Schork and the 1st/13th Month spread.

Discussion in 'Energy Futures' started by bobbymak880, Jun 30, 2011.

  1. Steven Schork said in his blog:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43564220

    "we graphed the return on holding natural gas inventory, as measured by the 1st/13th month calendar spread (aka… spot month/red month) of Nymex Henry Hub natural gas futures."
    The disposition of supply/demand metrics for gas can be inferred from the trendline running through our scatter plot of the spread and EIA estimated storage.

    Why use the 1st and 13th month to analyze a spread?
    Thanks!
    bmak
     
  2. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    There are some very good NG guys who occasionally post on this board, and I hope one of them adds some color for you.'

    Personally, I find Schork's stuff to be very prescient and of very high quality, and I used to subscribe to his newsletter.
     
  3. Isn't that just a one-year spread?
     
  4. pwrtrdr

    pwrtrdr

    Hello,

    Not sure, but did he give a definitive number of cents that the research produced ?

    Thanks
     
  5. A one-year spread. Definitely. But what to make of it? I'm trying to be a better trader and want to learn more about this spread.

    Also, so far no one has a definition for NG "shoulder season"!!!
     
  6. http://tinyurl.com/3f4ox3x

    I am pretty sure you are Steven Schork and trying to create traffic to your blog. Its best to be up front about these things.

    Thanks

    5yr
     
  7. Shoulder seasons in NG are fall and spring. Shoulder months are usually the last or first month of the summer or winter strips, ie: H/J and V/X.
     
  8. The NG curve for reference: